We’ve seen markets get ahead of themselves in bonds and in currencies as well, … There are signs that markets have now gotten too optimistic about not only the size of the U.S. recovery, but...

Every time you see a number that shows prices decelerating, immediately you have to think of sluggish re-hiring, … It means companies will still be closely guarding the bottom line and will be slow to...

When we started the year, the markets were reticent to buy into either a strong U.S. economy or the Fed raising rates to 5 percent. What has changed is the market’s very stubborn resistance to...

Everybody has to learn a little more economics than they want to learn, now that we’re drawing more and more of a distinction between actual GDP and final domestic demand, which is GDP minus inventories,...

Stocks usually lead us out of a recession, but not this time. That throws in a whole new level of uncertainty about how businesses are going to behave. We don’t know if there will be...

I’m not in the ‘V-shaped’ camp. I definitely think we’re going to get recovery, [but] the trajectory of that growth is going to be really low.

There still is evidence that the most important sector of the economy, the labor market, is still only in the process of stabilizing. It’s not in full-fledged recovery yet.

I think they’ll need to see a lot of job growth, not just one month.

The manufacturing sector has been so battered that it’s too early to say the troubles are over in that sector. But we’re seeing the economy making some kind of a bounce after contracting in April....

The global perception is the U.S. has the most to lose if there’s a war in Iraq. That’s made the rest of the world averse to U.S. assets. Foreign investors are looking home again.

We may have hit bottom here, to some extent. We’re facing two quarters — the fourth of 2001 and the first of 2002 — of close to zero growth. But this may be the first...

There really has not been justification for the dollar rally to happen exclusively versus the euro, especially because euro zone data has been kind of positive and Japanese data has kind of languished in a...

If you look back at the data we had in July and August, they were not very positive. Even before Sept. 11, we weren’t seeing growth anywhere, except in housing and [automobile sales].

They could have done more to communicate well with Wall Street. The new [people] will be much more savvy, more public-relations oriented.

Look at the subcomponents — what are inventories and new orders in this case? … If I were the purchasing manager at a hospital and somebody asked me about ‘new orders,’ what would I count?...

What I call a dollar crisis is when you have a big, negative feedback loop, with international investors spooked purely because of the currency, shedding U.S. assets, which would be more dollar negative, and it...

U.S. treasury yields are rising and we’ve seen that support the dollar across the board. The dollar remains strong on the back of solid U.S. economic data and expectations that the 10-year yield is going...

Business confidence remains very, very fragile, and we’re still in an environment where businesses are more concerned with cutting costs than with ramping up investment projects,

A lot of people don’t understand that the ISM number is not actually an output number. It’s the equivalent of consumer confidence, but for businesses. So certainly outlook has improved, but it remains to be...

Even if the Fed got very concerned about these headwinds — business investment, consumer confidence, stock market frailty — they’d be asking themselves if cutting another 25 basis points [one-quarter percentage point] would do any...

Most people at the Fed seem to feel that the national economy is strong enough to absorb the effects of Katrina. That to me seems that you will not see the Fed rate hike derailed.

I see the trade gap stabilizing, but it’s hard to see it narrowing unless you get the U.S. consumer shutting down.

Certainly the economy now looks like it was in better shape in January-April than expected. But these data don’t show the economy making any improvement.

Broadly, [the ISM number] reflects what we’ve been saying for some time: We’re on the road to recovery, and we’ve seen the slowest growth behind us — but this recovery is going to proceed in...

The bin Laden tape has led to some dollar selling. The tape fits with the view of those who think the U.S. economy is at risk of falling into a sinkhole.

Europeans’ cries are falling on deaf ears, … Their wish that the euro not bear the burden of readjustment will not make it into the G7 statement.

The ‘new economy’ was a new beast to some extent, and the Fed was too lenient in terms of letting consumer exuberance get ahead of itself. They should have been moderating growth in 1997 and...

At this point, they have very little ammo left, and they will need to tread carefully.

People choose to consume based on expected earnings. The unemployment data should take some of the froth off of a couple of really strong [recent] data reports.

There’s a growing effort within the Fed to look for other ways to add liquidity into markets and to sustain the interest-rate-led growth we’ve had, … I think they are going to move to a...

It is a modest dollar negative; the trade data combined with the claims data, but the focus this morning is very much on digesting the BOJ and on payrolls tomorrow.

We saw the unemployment rate actually holding throughout most of this slowdown, and only about four months ago we were at a 4.5 percent unemployment rate, … The average recession sees a lot of job...

The market reacted exactly the way they wanted it to, which was to flatten the yield curve. I think the point is clear: Policy makers are going to do whatever they can to help the...

Yet again, the U.S. consumer has phenomenal resilience and is not being swayed by the employment numbers coming out.

We’re definitely going to have a strong recovery, but it’s not going to be as robust [as people think]. It’s going to be the second quarter before we get any kind of positive gross domestic...

I don’t see future hiring robust enough to alleviate a lot of concern on the part of consumers. We’ve stopped shedding jobs, but over the next two quarters, we won’t see very much job growth.

The economy contracted in April and probably contracted in May; June is when we should be getting a bounce. If we’re to believe all the stars are aligned for a perfect eclipse of the recession...

I don’t see this as an inherently dollar-positive statement. We’ll see much greater uncertainty around the Fed at least until the next meeting because this statement is so flexible.

Oil prices are volatile enough that you can’t focus on one day’s move. But later in the year, a combination of robust global [economic] recovery and tension in the Middle East are really ingredients for...

Everybody is spinning it in their own direction, … The end result is the same trends remain in place: dollar weakness, euro strength and the yen strong, but not so strong as the euro.

I personally am among those with the view that we actually are going to see consumers shut down.

Market expectations have priced a rate cut in. When markets are pricing it in like that, the Fed can’t afford to give a downside surprise in this environment.

For the Fed, productivity is the antidote to inflation, and that’s still very strong. It’s inconceivable that the Fed would tighten in four out of its next five meetings.

If you look at the segments of the economy where we do have deflation, particularly in the goods industry — and particularly in durable goods, such as automobiles and heavy machinery — that’s where most...

The dollar had positive momentum going into the numbers but the numbers themselves, I don’t think were enough to push the dollar higher. What we’ve seen… is the dollar moving on the back of the...

It’s hard to find anything even remotely good about these numbers. This is pretty much going to quash any reason to buy the dollar,

It’s not in my forecast, but it’s probable, a quarter from now, if we’re sitting in the same place we have been, with some uneven signs of recovery, but no real improvement in payrolls and...

The manufacturing data certainly are positive, but the employment data specifically reinforce the notion that domestic growth is not going be enough to create many jobs.

This is more an unwind of positions betting against the yen. It’s been very surprising how fast this correction has been. The speed of the move has shocked a lot of people.

That’s the nightmare that keeps a lot of investors up at night — but I just don’t think that scenario is realistic.