What I call a dollar crisis is when you have a big, negative feedback loop, with international investors spooked purely because of the currency, shedding U.S. assets, which would be more dollar negative, and it...

U.S. treasury yields are rising and we’ve seen that support the dollar across the board. The dollar remains strong on the back of solid U.S. economic data and expectations that the 10-year yield is going...

Business confidence remains very, very fragile, and we’re still in an environment where businesses are more concerned with cutting costs than with ramping up investment projects,

A lot of people don’t understand that the ISM number is not actually an output number. It’s the equivalent of consumer confidence, but for businesses. So certainly outlook has improved, but it remains to be...

Even if the Fed got very concerned about these headwinds — business investment, consumer confidence, stock market frailty — they’d be asking themselves if cutting another 25 basis points [one-quarter percentage point] would do any...

Most people at the Fed seem to feel that the national economy is strong enough to absorb the effects of Katrina. That to me seems that you will not see the Fed rate hike derailed.

I see the trade gap stabilizing, but it’s hard to see it narrowing unless you get the U.S. consumer shutting down.

Certainly the economy now looks like it was in better shape in January-April than expected. But these data don’t show the economy making any improvement.

Broadly, [the ISM number] reflects what we’ve been saying for some time: We’re on the road to recovery, and we’ve seen the slowest growth behind us — but this recovery is going to proceed in...

The bin Laden tape has led to some dollar selling. The tape fits with the view of those who think the U.S. economy is at risk of falling into a sinkhole.

Europeans’ cries are falling on deaf ears, … Their wish that the euro not bear the burden of readjustment will not make it into the G7 statement.

The ‘new economy’ was a new beast to some extent, and the Fed was too lenient in terms of letting consumer exuberance get ahead of itself. They should have been moderating growth in 1997 and...

At this point, they have very little ammo left, and they will need to tread carefully.

People choose to consume based on expected earnings. The unemployment data should take some of the froth off of a couple of really strong [recent] data reports.

There’s a growing effort within the Fed to look for other ways to add liquidity into markets and to sustain the interest-rate-led growth we’ve had, … I think they are going to move to a...

It is a modest dollar negative; the trade data combined with the claims data, but the focus this morning is very much on digesting the BOJ and on payrolls tomorrow.

We saw the unemployment rate actually holding throughout most of this slowdown, and only about four months ago we were at a 4.5 percent unemployment rate, … The average recession sees a lot of job...

The market reacted exactly the way they wanted it to, which was to flatten the yield curve. I think the point is clear: Policy makers are going to do whatever they can to help the...

Yet again, the U.S. consumer has phenomenal resilience and is not being swayed by the employment numbers coming out.

We’re definitely going to have a strong recovery, but it’s not going to be as robust [as people think]. It’s going to be the second quarter before we get any kind of positive gross domestic...

I don’t see future hiring robust enough to alleviate a lot of concern on the part of consumers. We’ve stopped shedding jobs, but over the next two quarters, we won’t see very much job growth.

The economy contracted in April and probably contracted in May; June is when we should be getting a bounce. If we’re to believe all the stars are aligned for a perfect eclipse of the recession...

I don’t see this as an inherently dollar-positive statement. We’ll see much greater uncertainty around the Fed at least until the next meeting because this statement is so flexible.

Oil prices are volatile enough that you can’t focus on one day’s move. But later in the year, a combination of robust global [economic] recovery and tension in the Middle East are really ingredients for...

Everybody is spinning it in their own direction, … The end result is the same trends remain in place: dollar weakness, euro strength and the yen strong, but not so strong as the euro.

I personally am among those with the view that we actually are going to see consumers shut down.

Market expectations have priced a rate cut in. When markets are pricing it in like that, the Fed can’t afford to give a downside surprise in this environment.

For the Fed, productivity is the antidote to inflation, and that’s still very strong. It’s inconceivable that the Fed would tighten in four out of its next five meetings.

If you look at the segments of the economy where we do have deflation, particularly in the goods industry — and particularly in durable goods, such as automobiles and heavy machinery — that’s where most...

The dollar had positive momentum going into the numbers but the numbers themselves, I don’t think were enough to push the dollar higher. What we’ve seen… is the dollar moving on the back of the...

It’s hard to find anything even remotely good about these numbers. This is pretty much going to quash any reason to buy the dollar,

It’s not in my forecast, but it’s probable, a quarter from now, if we’re sitting in the same place we have been, with some uneven signs of recovery, but no real improvement in payrolls and...

The manufacturing data certainly are positive, but the employment data specifically reinforce the notion that domestic growth is not going be enough to create many jobs.

This is more an unwind of positions betting against the yen. It’s been very surprising how fast this correction has been. The speed of the move has shocked a lot of people.

That’s the nightmare that keeps a lot of investors up at night — but I just don’t think that scenario is realistic.

This is yet another reminder that policy-makers don’t have a lock on knowledge. There’s a tremendous amount of confusion now about whether or not the recent weakness due to military anxiety is going to end...

The Fed really comes in in situations where the capital markets stop functioning. This not that situation. They’re functioning just fine — they’re just really negative.

We’ve never seen how this index behaves in a recovery; we’ve never seen it in anything but a downturn. It doesn’t surprise me that we’d get record levels, now that manufacturing is recovering.

We’re not pricing in rate hikes any time soon, and today’s data won’t change that. Inflation is off the radar screen for policy makers.

Certainly this Christmas shopping season is going to make for a lot of very negative headlines. The concern is that this [weakness] will be a self-reinforcing phenomenon, but the confidence numbers indicate that may not...

The consumer is the last support here, and it’s not getting any help. The savings rate plus the confidence plunge add up to enough reasons for the Fed to give consumers a psychological boost.

Consumers will keep us in positive territory, but they’re not going to be optimistic enough to fuel economic growth to its potential.

A turnaround in manufacturing has not been signaled anywhere else, so I guess I’m not as excited about this number as the markets seem to be, … I would like to see this confirmed in...

On balance it’s dollar negative data.

The economy’s performance since Sept. 11 has been extremely resilient and based on unshakeable consumer confidence,

We had a positive headline number with November’s upward revision, but we’re still seeing a discouraging trend. Excluding auto sales, sales have gone from 0.8 to 0.3 to flat over October, November and December. So...