For the Fed, productivity is the antidote to inflation, and that’s still very strong. It’s inconceivable that the Fed would tighten in four out of its next five meetings.

If you look at the segments of the economy where we do have deflation, particularly in the goods industry — and particularly in durable goods, such as automobiles and heavy machinery — that’s where most...

The dollar had positive momentum going into the numbers but the numbers themselves, I don’t think were enough to push the dollar higher. What we’ve seen… is the dollar moving on the back of the...

It’s hard to find anything even remotely good about these numbers. This is pretty much going to quash any reason to buy the dollar,

It’s not in my forecast, but it’s probable, a quarter from now, if we’re sitting in the same place we have been, with some uneven signs of recovery, but no real improvement in payrolls and...

The manufacturing data certainly are positive, but the employment data specifically reinforce the notion that domestic growth is not going be enough to create many jobs.

This is more an unwind of positions betting against the yen. It’s been very surprising how fast this correction has been. The speed of the move has shocked a lot of people.

That’s the nightmare that keeps a lot of investors up at night — but I just don’t think that scenario is realistic.

This is yet another reminder that policy-makers don’t have a lock on knowledge. There’s a tremendous amount of confusion now about whether or not the recent weakness due to military anxiety is going to end...

The Fed really comes in in situations where the capital markets stop functioning. This not that situation. They’re functioning just fine — they’re just really negative.

We’ve never seen how this index behaves in a recovery; we’ve never seen it in anything but a downturn. It doesn’t surprise me that we’d get record levels, now that manufacturing is recovering.

We’re not pricing in rate hikes any time soon, and today’s data won’t change that. Inflation is off the radar screen for policy makers.

Certainly this Christmas shopping season is going to make for a lot of very negative headlines. The concern is that this [weakness] will be a self-reinforcing phenomenon, but the confidence numbers indicate that may not...

The consumer is the last support here, and it’s not getting any help. The savings rate plus the confidence plunge add up to enough reasons for the Fed to give consumers a psychological boost.

Consumers will keep us in positive territory, but they’re not going to be optimistic enough to fuel economic growth to its potential.

A turnaround in manufacturing has not been signaled anywhere else, so I guess I’m not as excited about this number as the markets seem to be, … I would like to see this confirmed in...

On balance it’s dollar negative data.

The economy’s performance since Sept. 11 has been extremely resilient and based on unshakeable consumer confidence,

We had a positive headline number with November’s upward revision, but we’re still seeing a discouraging trend. Excluding auto sales, sales have gone from 0.8 to 0.3 to flat over October, November and December. So...

I’m not presuming they’ll be aggressively cutting rates [this year] if we see data turning around. But traditionally, the Fed holds rates low for a year and a half after a recession, and usually continues...

We’re getting to a phase where European data could have more of an impact because a solid U.S. economic scenario is so widely expected. The markets are also very thin, so traders aren’t taking on...

Whether you’re going into business for yourself or not, you’re still looking at a very anemic job market.

The underlying state of the economy is on weak footing, and we’re going to need further stimulus to keep the recovery on track.

In the near term, markets are getting very excited about the idea of the end of quantitative easing, and that’s causing the yen to come under some upward pressure.

It’s always been very important to listen to CEOs. When you’ve got guys that run companies nervous about demand, they put off investing.

I don’t see the scope for the ECB to match the Fed in terms of raising rates and this will continue to support the dollar. The ECB tends to lag the Fed and even if...

The next couple of months will be absolutely crucial. If we can get through this, we’re going to have growth that will be consumer-led next year.

Today’s report was a case of familiar culprits — apparel prices continue to put downward pressure on inflation, and housing and medical care continue to put upward pressure on inflation.

With M&A activity picking up, productivity growth will stay robust, and that means continued new efficiencies, and a lot of that will overshadow new job creation.

The report was dollar positive. With the combination of solid data for the headline and what looks like increasing price pressure, that means you are going to see U.S. yields continue to rise and the...

They have clearly started to apply more pressure. They have singled out China and the rest of the emerging market economies.

We are seeing a slowdown, but we’re not necessarily seeing a slow economy, … The Fed is still going to be on alert for inflation, and we’re going to have to wait and see more...

Stocks in this recovery have performed far worse than the last three recoveries. You really have to ask yourself, as a whole, what the markets are seeing out there.

Inflation is looking more benign outside of the energy sector.

It wouldn’t surprise me if the Fed did stick with the positive and ignore the negative, but I can’t imagine them taking out the statement [in their August policy announcement] that says ‘labor market indicators...

There can be a circular effect — if consumers lose confidence and businesses are nervous that the consumer will stop spending, and they downgrade production expectations or lay people off or stop hiring people because...

This is undeniably good news. The crucial question going forward is going to be if the rise in confidence is reflected in more spending on the part of the consumer, or if it’s simply a...

Almost always the knee-jerk reaction in the markets to positive news on reforms is yen positive. People look at reform as being a positive thing for Japan, one day, hopefully.

Markets initially seem to be focusing more on the downward revision in growth than the upward revision to the deflator.

In a typical recession, you see people…consolidate their domestic balance sheets. Instead, spending [has been] as robust as before, and that’s hurt domestic balance sheets. We’re really at a point where the consumer is squeezing...

For the past year and a half, the consumer has defied a recession and Sept. 11 and kept spending at a healthy pace.

I think a lot of gloom still exists about the size of the deficit and the market is punishing the dollar for that.

This is not a ‘ripping off the Band-Aid’ kind of situation, where you know how much the pain will be and that you’ll be fine afterwards. We don’t know how well the economy has healed....

It erodes the relative interest-rate support for the dollar.

Europeans’ cries are falling on deaf ears. Their wish that the euro not bear the burden of readjustment will not make it into the G7 statement.

The consumer is finally winding down, … We’ve seen income growth slow somewhat, and we have enough headwinds building that we can make a strong case for spending slowing markedly.

The trade number at best leaves the dollar where it was and at worst sparks a substantial dollar decline.

We are still seeing some slack in the labor market, in several different places.

If we’re in a situation where rates are higher because the economy’s great, the housing market is going to be last thing I’ll be worried about.

We are seeing pretty solid export growth. You are starting to see the U.S. benefit from faster growth in Asia and the rest of the world.