In our view, current financial market psychology is under-estimating the negative impact that rising joblessness will have on the housing and motor vehicle markets in the first half of 2002,

Importantly, on a year-over-year basis, the core CPI continued to inch higher,

Given that the Fed has indicated this is a key number, that’s very hopeful,

It does fit in with [Fed Chairman Alan] Greenspan’s perception that we’re past the peak of consumer spending binge, … He doesn’t want consumer spending to be slow, but he wanted it to back off...

This plunge could reflect shock and could rebound if consumers keep buying cars and visiting malls as much as anecdotes indicate they have in recent weeks.

We have often noted the Fed tries to choose a policy action that minimizes the consequences of a mistake. Which would have the least negative consequences today: easing too much and setting off an excessively...

We would not argue the gradual year-to-year increase in unit labor costs is not of concern at the Fed, but are convinced that none of today’s data will impact their decision [at their next meeting]...

While the monthly data is often erratic and the government statisticians warn that it takes four months to establish a change in trend, it is pretty clear from the top chart that the explosion in...

For the past six months we’ve all been wondering when consumers would come back down to earth from their stratospheric orbit. It looks like it’s finally happened.

What they [Fed officials] and we are concerned about is the ‘staying power’ of [consumer] spending in 2002. In particular, there is room for a large decline in motor vehicle sales in the January retail...

We’re looking at an innovative non-standard way to float the company, that may involve giving existing shareholders priority in any offering. We’re not ruling anything out.

The fact that the boom is ending should not be interpreted as indicating any serious trouble for builders or realtors — unless, of course, some overextended on debt in expectations that sales would continue to...

Not bad, but less than the 18 percent (annual rate of growth) in the second quarter and 26 percent (rate) in the first quarter.

The soap opera will continue. I wouldn’t take them off stage altogether as some people are doing.

More people could die in the aftermath from lack of shelter and food than in the earthquake itself.

It’s like the kid doesn’t want to take any medicine, but it’s good for him, … It’s a little medicine now versus a lot of bad medicine later.

Despite the discouraging headline that CPI inflation rose, there was actually more to be encouraged than discouraged about in this report, … Since it is already known that gasoline has dropped sharply in October, that...

Hope is a verb with its shirtsleeves rolled up.

These numbers are as close to perfect as you can get from a Fed point of view.

He has been very committed. He came onto the team as a freshman and has steadily improved. He aspires to run at the collegiate level.

Initially, we estimated the number of people in need was about one million and we had reached about 50 percent of them. We’ve had a food security team in the field and they’ve revised the...

[Increased interest rates might also mean a smaller pay raise as well as a more gradual increase in the value of your investments. But slower may be surer.] In the late 1970s and early 1980s,...

The fear is that landslides will further hamper our operations,

Were we to confront our creaturehood squarely, how would we propose to educate? The answer, I think is implied in the root of the word education, educe, which means “to draw out.” What needs to...

(Fed Chairman Alan) Greenspan thinks consumer confidence is important, and if he thinks so I guess we should think so,

The more stable picture in the total index and the lessening pace of decline in orders would fit with the idea of a 25-basis-point (0.25 percent) reduction on May 15 instead of the more aggressive...

People have been saying shelter, shelter, shelter but there is no point having a tent if you are cold and hungry inside.

I think the bond markets are getting a head fake here because [the Fed] explicitly said that they are going to be on guard,

BT paid ‘£10 billion more than it should have… especially in auctions in the UK and Germany.

become ground zero in this movement.

The Fed views potential inflation as last year’s problem. This year, they will be focused on promoting a rebound in growth.

He has been very committed, … He came onto the team as a freshman and has steadily improved. He aspires to run at the collegiate level.

We’re much more upbeat now than a few weeks ago when there was a sort of creeping anxiety.

I still think there’s a better than 50-50 chance they will raise rates again.

On the whole, there are not many people [at Hopkins] who are politically active.

It seemed serious that he fired bullets into the trailer. One had gone clear through the other side.

Things obviously got away from them. But by acting in such dramatic fashion, the Fed sent a loud signal to participants in both the financial and the business sectors that the Fed will fight the...

Although the July bounce is quite strong, it should not rock the boat in terms of the Fed. An annual rate [of retail sales increase] of 5 percent to 6 percent could, in fact, be...

We are in the second half of the season, and he needs a bit more speed.

The data reflect that main concern that Mr. Greenspan has voiced in his recent comments, i.e., that with labor markets this tight, there is a real risk that compensation costs will accelerate faster than the...

They decided they were going to go and get some revenge.

It will no doubt buoy forecasters who see the recent slowdown in the economy as a temporary affair — which includes the Fed,

Several forecasters have recently indicated they believe the U.S. economy is already in recession,

We’re getting a flip with these numbers, … We had been seeing all year long the consumer doing well and the manufacturing sector doing poorly. Here, consumer confidence has fallen, but there’s a hint of...

In the late 1970s and early 1980s, people were getting 10 percent pay raises. But housing prices were going up 12 to 15 percent, and so were cars.

The report will not comfort the Fed, despite the good headline data, … The news further back in the pipeline was not good.

This report may modestly lower third-quarter real GDP estimates,

But that’s if economic conditions become far worse than they are now, … It’s a bit like saying ‘if the sun doesn’t come up tomorrow then crops will fail,’ or ‘the world may end if...

The Fed did not lower the fed funds rate, but their statement indicates a 180 degree about-face in terms of their view of the risks facing the economy, … It looks to me they’re ready...

My belief all along is the unemployment rate is the key to consumer behavior, … A 4.5 percent unemployment rate would be more than a half a percentage point above the low of 3.9 percent....