Given that the Fed has indicated this is a key number, that’s very hopeful,

It does fit in with [Fed Chairman Alan] Greenspan’s perception that we’re past the peak of consumer spending binge, … He doesn’t want consumer spending to be slow, but he wanted it to back off...

This plunge could reflect shock and could rebound if consumers keep buying cars and visiting malls as much as anecdotes indicate they have in recent weeks.

We have often noted the Fed tries to choose a policy action that minimizes the consequences of a mistake. Which would have the least negative consequences today: easing too much and setting off an excessively...

We would not argue the gradual year-to-year increase in unit labor costs is not of concern at the Fed, but are convinced that none of today’s data will impact their decision [at their next meeting]...

While the monthly data is often erratic and the government statisticians warn that it takes four months to establish a change in trend, it is pretty clear from the top chart that the explosion in...

For the past six months we’ve all been wondering when consumers would come back down to earth from their stratospheric orbit. It looks like it’s finally happened.

What they [Fed officials] and we are concerned about is the ‘staying power’ of [consumer] spending in 2002. In particular, there is room for a large decline in motor vehicle sales in the January retail...