There is no reason for the Fed to deviate away from the cautious policy approach, … The central bank won’t raise the interest rate until August or later.

The loss of confidence in the financial reporting of Corporate America could hurt both consumer and business spending, … The reduced availability and higher cost of credit, as well as the desire to strengthen the...

Had this report showed another plunge in confidence, then I think it would have been a sure bet to expect another cut sometime in April,

One of the biggest economic uncertainties is whether the ongoing layoffs will mushroom and spread,

This report is clearly disappointing,

Dollar depreciation is good assuming it is taking place in an orderly manner. The concern is any precipitous plunge. If that were to happen the Fed would have to raise rates significantly.

This scenario is highly unlikely, but can’t be ruled out. The best outcome is a gradual and orderly fall in the value of the dollar improving the trade balance; this is in fact what has...

Corporate profits are likely to rise at double-digit rates in the second half of the year. And that will be hopefully enough to offset some of the negative psychology in the stock market — assuming...

The central bank runs the risk of raising the interest rate too fast. Historically, the central bank had overreacted to inflationary pressures, contributing to economic recessions.

Business spending is the Achilles heel of the economy, … The economic baton needs to pass from consumers to businesses.

If you want to really help the economy right away, the fastest way to do that is to have the government spend the money itself, … The next step would be to give tax cuts...

Foreign investors are becoming a bit more gun shy about buying U.S. assets. Until the dollar settles down, we are going to be looking at volatility in the foreign exchange markets.

Once the Fed starts raising rates, I suspect they might go up more rapidly than a lot of people realize. Many of us think the Fed will do things slowly and gradually. In fact, they...

A quarter-point cut [Tuesday] could weaken confidence by reinforcing pessimism in the market place, … Instead, [Fed] Chairman Greenspan should stand pat, sending a positive message that economic recovery is in sight and no additional...

The economy has settled into a sustainable, self-reinforcing growth path, … All major categories of the economy have contributed to economic growth. Now that businesses have begun to add to payrolls, the current expansion is...

If there were a bubble in California and if it were to burst, that would be a national economic catastrophe.

This time around, my guess is that the lead may end up being shorter than the historic average, … I wouldn’t rule out the possibility of the stock market being an almost coincident indicator.

[Fed] Chairman [Alan] Greenspan will have to act to boost confidence, … Another cut at the Nov. 6 [Fed policy] meeting should not be ruled out, lowering the federal funds rate to 2.0 percent. Considering...

We have a situation where the baton of economic growth needs to pass from consumers to businesses, but that hasn’t happened yet,

Our research shows the jobless rate is the best indicator of monetary policy, … They have almost perfect correlation.

That’s one of the reasons why consumers are not going on a spending spree, though they’re keeping the economic ship afloat. When higher unemployment numbers come out, that will probably rattle consumer confidence a bit.

Maybe the stock market bottomed on Sept. 21 and maybe the economy did the same.

Once the employment picture stabilizes, around midyear, we should see a more rapid and sustained recovery in consumer confidence.

The economy continues to grow with fewer people working. How long can we squeeze juice out of this orange? Not indefinitely. Sooner or later economic growth would suffer.

It is unclear how much financial infrastructure has been damaged, … At least temporarily, the financial system could be frozen, further damaging the economy.

More and more jobs, both manufacturing and service jobs are sent overseas; these jobs won’t come back any time soon.

The pause in economic growth and the drop in confidence will probably cause the Fed to tighten later rather than sooner. The earliest I can see them tightening is the end of June, and they...

How so many people went so far astray from the mainstream and were wrong is probably unprecedented,

By the time the election is over, the Fed might be in a position to increase rates more aggressively. In 2005, we might see rates going up more than a quarter (percentage point) every other...

Inflation is not an issue right now. However, it could be in the future. The Fed will begin to worry about inflation because monetary policy affects the inflation rate with a lag of as much...

Clearly, as a betting man, I would have to say the probability of a recession has gone up significantly,

Without a doubt, there will be a contraction in the third quarter’s GDP of approximately 0.9 percent, … Given the slow start in October, the most likely scenario calls for a larger contraction in the...

The economy and the job market are not out of the woods yet,

Hopefully, by August (when the Fed next meets), we should have a pretty good idea that the economy is expanding. A tax rebate and earlier cuts will be working. If the Fed cuts in August,...

The jobless rate is the best indicator of monetary policy, … The Fed keeps cutting rates as long as the jobless rate goes up. This time around is really no exception.

Revisions have been substantial in the past.

The point is that mounting layoffs and weak consumer confidence will keep consumer spending fairly weak.

It’s not necessarily a negative, from the point of view of economic growth, … Even in Washington, D.C., the government work will be made up.

Consumer demand has been tapped out, so we won’t see a major thrust there, … We’re really counting on this replacement demand, especially in the high-tech area.

I’ve spent the past couple of days in Washington, talking to people at the Federal Reserve and the [White House] Council of Economic Advisers, and this issue came up, … The consensus seems to be...

Greenspan has to make sure the labor market has improved on a continuing basis before he can even think about hiking interest rates. For example, in 1992, he waited 17 months after the peak of...

Without the terrorist attacks, we would be experiencing economic recovery in this quarter.

Businesses have regained confidence in the sustainability of this economic expansion and have started to hire people in earnest. Employers are trying to boost employment by adding more workers, not more hours per worker.

Consumers are not on a spending spree, but they continue to spend,

The rate cut could be temporary, but in these times of crisis, I think it’s not inappropriate,

Employment gains are rising at a slower rate, retail sales are decelerating somewhat, the stock market is going through some turmoil and the Middle East situation is also probably having a dampening impact on consumers’...

We are starting from such a low level of inventories that [the gain] shows up as a pretty huge increase, … But if you look at the level compared to … expected sales, inventories are...

It was a very balanced statement. Given the current fragile state of the stock market and the economy, they wanted to do nothing which might add to volatility, so they decided to say as little...