I don’t think businesses will hire more people in anticipation of higher demand. They want to see demand first. They feel they have the flexibility to increase production without hiring people.

The expectation is that the NAPM numbers should continue to improve and that the manufacturing recession is hopefully going away.

This is what economists call a simultaneous process, meaning that it works both ways.

A slight decline should not change the picture that much, … If you look at the fundamentals, despite all the negative news, consumers are in pretty good shape. The jobless rate is pretty low, and...

Clearly, the labor market is improving, and this should translate into more jobs in the future,

Businesses are going to be waiting and seeing. The most important factor is how consumers behave, … The cost of capital is important, but in the final analysis, you’ve got to sell products. If you’re...

We knew the data collected after the attack was going to be weak, but I was a little dumbfounded by the fact that the numbers even before the attack were awfully weak, … Even before...

Construction spending is always a lagging economic indicator, especially in commercial construction, because of the time it takes to plan, execute and build. I expect housing to be a stabilizer, but commercial construction to be...

Employment gains really haven’t come from full-time workers. They’re coming primarily from part-time, temporary help, … Businesses are still trying to maintain flexibility by not hiring more expensive, full-time workers. That might be one of...

I think we should know about candidates’ desires and views, but I think it would be a mistake to assume that they will become reality.

Manufacturing could be a key driver of economic growth in the future, as opposed to being a big drag as we’ve seen in the past, … Even employment, which has been weak, should be coming...

If they keep the word, the financial markets will like that, because the Fed has put itself in a self-imposed box. If they discard the word measured, they’ll be saying they’re free to do what...

We’re looking for the wording of the Fed’s statement to change in an encouraging direction. The economic numbers would argue for more optimism than caution at this point, … My expectation is that this economy...

What’s lacking is confidence, so businesses aren’t spending the money they have, … That’s why I don’t necessarily think it takes a huge fiscal stimulus package to get the economy moving.

If oil goes to $50 a barrel, I think we’re talking about 3 percent economic growth, rather than 4 percent growth, possibly. And the jobless rate could actually go up, not down, because the long-term...

We’re going to get an economic boost from not only production, but from inventory buildup during the current quarter, and probably for the balance of this year.

It’s quite possible the Fed will have to turn around and raise rates.

For every 10-percent appreciation in the dollar, it cuts inflation by one full percentage point, assuming the strength of the dollar is sustained,

I’m not sure we will see a big revision in February; I won’t be surprised if we do not.

If prices remain where they are, and the rest of the economy performs well, that won’t be the end of the world,

The problem is that the stock market tends to predict downturns or upturns too early. The common joke is that the stock market predicted 11 out of the last nine recessions.

My concern is that inventories are so low, some businesses will actually miss sales through stock-outs.

All the pieces are in place to generate healthy economic growth for the balance of the year, … But so far, political and economic uncertainties have overshadowed the strengthening in corporate profits.

The bedrock of consumer spending and confidence is employment. The expectations of more jobs has boosted consumer confidence.

This report is a slow boat to China, reflecting continuing business caution about hiring people. Facing unprecedented competition from both domestic and foreign sources, businesses are still focused on productivity gains with as few employees...

Crowding out could become a distinct possibility in the future, pushing up interest rates significantly in 2005 and beyond,

The Japanese would argue that they never really intended to bend the trend of the dollar; they were just trying to make sure the dollar depreciated gradually, in an orderly fashion, … I suspect that’s...

A booming economic condition would result.

The stock market will remain depressed until layoffs stabilize and the resolution of the war on terrorism becomes clearer,

The problem is the bottleneck. The industry simply is not able to process the applications fast enough. They (homeowners) are trying to refinance…But the increase in demand will simply increase the waiting list.

The Fed is still likely to cut rates in August. Some of the more important measures [of economic strength], such as corporate profits, are moving in the wrong direction. The only real question is whether...

Even before the attack, the economy seems to have relapsed into the doldrums,

We notice it every day — when we go to gasoline stations, we pay more,

Even with significant employment gains, the central bank wants to see more inflation and pricing power. The fall election is another hurdle. No hike in the interest rate is likely in 2004.

It’s going to be very close to zero.

Clearly, the economic fundamentals of monetary and fiscal policies, as well as the falling value of the dollar, support a recovery. What we’re not sure of is how strong the recovery is going to be.

We know inventories are probably somewhere near the bottom, … Businesses are producing [goods], trying to not only meet demand, but also to rebuild inventories.

If the economy does not move out of the soft patch, monetary policy could be on hold beginning September until the economy shows signs of renewed strength.

This economic indicator continues the string of statistical signs supporting the current Federal Reserve stance, … The recovery seems to continue, but it is still too weak to generate sufficient payroll growth for inflationary pressure.

[Fed Chairman Alan] Greenspan would like to see employment gains of 150,000 or more jobs for a few months before dropping the words, ‘considerable period’.

Probably the overall (CPI) number will be somewhat higher than anticipated, but like PPI, the core-number should be close to forecasts,

If deficit spending goes well beyond 2005, 2006, 2007 or 2008, it will lead to crowding out,

It boils down to housing affordability; mortgage rates have risen, but they’re still historically very low, … We’re continuing to see people who had been sitting on the fence jumping in to take advantage of...

But give people more information, and we can incorporate it into our thinking process. We can attach and assign probabilities and then more or less go on with our normal lives. I think that’s exactly...

Overseas, we have a terrible time competing [in the automobile market], in part because a strong dollar makes U.S. cars more expensive. Hopefully, that’s encouraging Detroit to focus on making higher-priced, value-added cars with strong...

If the economy turns up by next spring, we should see housing doing better by then, … Between now and the end of the year will be the worst period for housing.

This is a terrible number. The economic recovery is almost three years old, and the economy should be producing 200,000 to 300,000 jobs per month.

If it weren’t for the terror attacks, we would have avoided a recession, and [Fed] Chairman Greenspan would have been credited for another soft landing. Given the information the Fed had in 1999 and 2000,...

Unless the labor market gains some steam and momentum, both real income and confidence of consumers would be hurt.

But if things start to go wrong — if business spending doesn’t pick up, or state and local governments lay off more people than anticipated, or auto sales fall off, or interest rates go much...