Even with significant employment gains, the central bank wants to see more inflation and pricing power. The fall election is another hurdle. No hike in the interest rate is likely in 2004.

It’s going to be very close to zero.

Clearly, the economic fundamentals of monetary and fiscal policies, as well as the falling value of the dollar, support a recovery. What we’re not sure of is how strong the recovery is going to be.

We know inventories are probably somewhere near the bottom, … Businesses are producing [goods], trying to not only meet demand, but also to rebuild inventories.

If the economy does not move out of the soft patch, monetary policy could be on hold beginning September until the economy shows signs of renewed strength.

This economic indicator continues the string of statistical signs supporting the current Federal Reserve stance, … The recovery seems to continue, but it is still too weak to generate sufficient payroll growth for inflationary pressure.

[Fed Chairman Alan] Greenspan would like to see employment gains of 150,000 or more jobs for a few months before dropping the words, ‘considerable period’.

Probably the overall (CPI) number will be somewhat higher than anticipated, but like PPI, the core-number should be close to forecasts,

If deficit spending goes well beyond 2005, 2006, 2007 or 2008, it will lead to crowding out,

It boils down to housing affordability; mortgage rates have risen, but they’re still historically very low, … We’re continuing to see people who had been sitting on the fence jumping in to take advantage of...

But give people more information, and we can incorporate it into our thinking process. We can attach and assign probabilities and then more or less go on with our normal lives. I think that’s exactly...

Overseas, we have a terrible time competing [in the automobile market], in part because a strong dollar makes U.S. cars more expensive. Hopefully, that’s encouraging Detroit to focus on making higher-priced, value-added cars with strong...

If the economy turns up by next spring, we should see housing doing better by then, … Between now and the end of the year will be the worst period for housing.

This is a terrible number. The economic recovery is almost three years old, and the economy should be producing 200,000 to 300,000 jobs per month.

If it weren’t for the terror attacks, we would have avoided a recession, and [Fed] Chairman Greenspan would have been credited for another soft landing. Given the information the Fed had in 1999 and 2000,...

Unless the labor market gains some steam and momentum, both real income and confidence of consumers would be hurt.

But if things start to go wrong — if business spending doesn’t pick up, or state and local governments lay off more people than anticipated, or auto sales fall off, or interest rates go much...

It’s pretty clear that all the pieces for capital spending are in place, including rising sales, lower inventories and increases in shipments and orders, … So, despite what CEOs say in public, there’s no question...

The committee members believe that the interest rate is too low, pointing to continuing, gradual increases in the rate. The central bank is reducing accommodation, not tightening monetary policy.

Both consumer and business confidence is depressed because of uncertainty surrounding the war, … If we can somehow bring closure to the war situation, I would expect confidence to improve dramatically, taking with it the...

In the early stage of an economic recovery it is almost normal to see some volatility in consumer confidence because the jobless rate continues to rise, jarring people’s confidence, … However, all the pieces are...

The economy is clearly cooling or downshifting somewhat,

It will have some positive effect, but I don’t think there’s a strong conviction the stock market rally is going to be sustained. No one is really cashing it in and beginning to spend more...

If this gets out of control all of Latin America could suffer. When Brazil sneezes, the rest of Latin America catches a cold.

It clearly tells us that consumers have and will continue to sustain and support economic growth, … Consumers have really been the backbone of current economic growth and will continue to be a stabilizer for...

The corporate tax cuts may not have an economic impact until months later.

That’s why confidence is important. If it remains healthy, gains in sales will be high enough to offset the negatives coming from job cuts. It’s a tug-of-war; right now, job cuts are winning.

Until and unless there are significant increases in jobs over a period, tighter monetary policy is out of the question.

We’ve been able to have our cake and eat it too — satisfy our demand for goods and services and at lower prices,

I think the aggressive expectations of the market are not going to be met.

If we create [millions of] jobs, as the White House says we will, then real incomes will rise and we can afford to pay for the higher price of energy. If not, it might be...

The third cylinder of economic growth is beginning to fire, … The other two cylinders are inventory swings and consumer spending. Outside of telecommunications and airplanes, business capital spending has begun to improve already, beginning...

There’s a possibility they may decide to skip [hiking rates at] the February meeting. There is really no urgency because of the sluggish economy and the low inflation rate.

This was a temporary pause, which has already been reversed in the month of September,

If they don’t deliver, we could see a sharp sell-off in markets and a drop in consumer confidence,

This really was the nail in the coffin for the Aug. 24 meeting, … I think it implies interest rates will go up faster in the future.

This cut … won’t do much good to perk up economic growth, … Now, bond yields should be trending up. The Achilles’ heel of the economy, business spending, won’t be affected much by this cut.

Washington will pump massive amounts of aid into the Katrina-affected areas boosting economic activities.

And now that the economy is improving, people have greater confidence to make purchases and build homes.

Right now I’ve taken (a stimulus package) out of my economic outlook, but there is still a chance that it will pass.

Immediately after the terror attacks, we were shell-shocked and stopped doing everything but watching television,

There is no reason for the Fed to deviate away from the cautious policy approach, … The central bank won’t raise the interest rate until August or later.

The loss of confidence in the financial reporting of Corporate America could hurt both consumer and business spending, … The reduced availability and higher cost of credit, as well as the desire to strengthen the...

Had this report showed another plunge in confidence, then I think it would have been a sure bet to expect another cut sometime in April,

One of the biggest economic uncertainties is whether the ongoing layoffs will mushroom and spread,

This report is clearly disappointing,

Dollar depreciation is good assuming it is taking place in an orderly manner. The concern is any precipitous plunge. If that were to happen the Fed would have to raise rates significantly.

This scenario is highly unlikely, but can’t be ruled out. The best outcome is a gradual and orderly fall in the value of the dollar improving the trade balance; this is in fact what has...

Corporate profits are likely to rise at double-digit rates in the second half of the year. And that will be hopefully enough to offset some of the negative psychology in the stock market — assuming...

The central bank runs the risk of raising the interest rate too fast. Historically, the central bank had overreacted to inflationary pressures, contributing to economic recessions.