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Stephen Roach  Quotes
With global trade screeching to such a standstill, so, too, should the external demand contributions of most major economies around the world,

—Stephen Roach

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Trade
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It won’t be a huge dramatic bursting, but it will be felt this year.

—Stephen Roach

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I do not think that China is going to run the risk of accelerating its pace of opening up its capital markets because of adverse consequences in the global economy.

—Stephen Roach

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Risk
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Why should the victim who has never received a dime sit back while the civil rights violator gets his job and back pay?

—Stephen Roach

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Civil-Rights
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I continue to find Germany, by far Europe’s biggest economy and still the third-largest economy in the world, the most interesting story of all. Germany, despite its bad press, is very much on the move.

—Stephen Roach

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Economy
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There is good reason to believe that a sharp weakening in the value of the U.S. currency is essential to the global rebalancing that must begin to take place if the world’s current account imbalances...

—Stephen Roach

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Reason
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By staying disciplined with regard to inflationary policy, the Fed nips any inflationary expectations in the bud.

—Stephen Roach

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Conventional wisdom has it that globalization is a win-win but that is increasingly looking like a pipe dream. There is no escaping the concerns that workers in high-wage countries have.

—Stephen Roach

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Globalization
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Never in modern history has the world’s leading economic power tried to do so much with so little. Now Washington is upping the ante as it opens the fiscal spigot to cope with post-Katrina reconstruction...

—Stephen Roach

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History
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that doesn’t mean that there cannot be some adjustments made along the way.

—Stephen Roach

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Borrowing from physics, the last thing an unstable system needs is a shock. And yet the risks of just such a disturbance have never seemed higher. Far-fetched as it seems, the possibility of a more...

—Stephen Roach

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Borrowing
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We’ve gone from one bubble, in stocks, to another, in housing.

—Stephen Roach

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I honestly believe that if China were to revalue [its currency] upward by 10 percent — a change I do not expect nor advise — its exports would suffer minimal loss of market share,

—Stephen Roach

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As the prospects of a full-blown oil shock rise, the prospects of outright global recession in 2005 loom more and more likely.

—Stephen Roach

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If that’s the economic model, China is in trouble.

—Stephen Roach

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Trouble
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Europe looks at China as more of a strategic partner than a competitive threat so it has stayed more out of the currency debate than the U.S..

—Stephen Roach

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China
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Without the consumer, revival remains all too dependent on tenuous support from China and [business investment].

—Stephen Roach

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Business
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Unfortunately, the SARS effect is concentrated on Asia — long the fastest-growing region in the world and the one area that essentially had been keeping the global economy afloat. To the extent that this source...

—Stephen Roach

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The United States has long drawn comfort from the quality differential of its educational system. However, in the Internet Age with its ubiquitous diffusion of knowledge, innovation, and technological change, that may turn out to...

—Stephen Roach

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Age And Aging
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To the extent such a payback is likely after the current spending burst, it could act as a sharp depressant on overall demand growth in subsequent quarters, … That development, in the context of a...

—Stephen Roach

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The same distortions, in my view, could well be explaining a lot of the recent strength in the remainder of the U.S. data flow. If that’s the case, all it will take is for the...

—Stephen Roach

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Strength
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There is a dangerous degree of complacency, and out of that comes a surprise that does the most damage to the global economy.

—Stephen Roach

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Complacency
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An extraordinary deflationary shock in tradable goods has coincided with outsize disinflation in services, resulting in the most deflation-prone business cycle of the modern post-World War II era,

—Stephen Roach

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The West always seems to expect a hard landing in China. Yet in three instances over the past decade, China has proved the doubters wrong.

—Stephen Roach

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Past
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Global trade is an increasingly large component of the world economy — now accounting for close to 25 percent of global GDP. So when world trade hits the wall, so should the broader measures of...

—Stephen Roach

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Economy
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I am feeling better about the prognosis for the world economy for the first time in ages.

—Stephen Roach

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Economy
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Greenspan’s remarks appear to be more balanced than in the past. He is moving into closer alignment with what has become accepted practice in most central banking circles. Missing, however, is what a central bank...

—Stephen Roach

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Past
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[Inflation] is starting to broaden out; it’s starting to move up a little bit, … The Fed certainly has to be concerned about that.

—Stephen Roach

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Inflation
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For the United States, it’s the end of labor as we once knew it.

—Stephen Roach

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Labor
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Unlike the case a decade ago, I view the coming normalization of Fed policy as a much more serous threat to economic recovery in the U.S. and the broader global economy,

—Stephen Roach

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He’s the victim. He was beaten, abandoned, betrayed and his medical needs ignored by David Williams.

—Stephen Roach

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The case for a classic U.S. current account adjustment grows more compelling. This could lead to renewed weakening of the dollar and higher long- term real interest rates.

—Stephen Roach

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Consumers have stagnant real wages and they are getting hit with the shocks of higher energy prices. This is not a good combination for the overstretched consumer.

—Stephen Roach

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Energy
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We are shifting to an outright recession scenario in the United States, and, in response, we are slashing our forecast of the global economy for 2001,

—Stephen Roach

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United States
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If the Schumer-Graham bill closes down U.S. trade with China through the imposition of steep tariffs, a saving-short U.S. economy will simply have to divert a significant portion of its multilateral trade deficit elsewhere.

—Stephen Roach

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Trade
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You’ve got war, SARS, uncertainty, and imbalances that will prevail after the war is over and until a cure for the disease is found.

—Stephen Roach

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Today’s German angst has much in common with the experience of the American worker in the early 1980s and again the early 1990s. For both cases in the U.S., there was no gain without pain....

—Stephen Roach

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Experience
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There’s a little bit of a sign of rust but no sign of bust in the U.S. property market. The weakest link of the global economy in 2006 is the U.S. consumer.

—Stephen Roach

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It doesn’t get much cheerier than that.

—Stephen Roach

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It’s time to make it official. The downside risks we have been warning of over the past several months are now coming to pass.

—Stephen Roach

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Past
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China has been moving — very slowly, but the speed is very much dependent on their ability to withstand reforms. The idea of forcing China and other countries to move on the currency front is...

—Stephen Roach

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Ability
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Over the 2004-05 interval, looming bond market perils appear to pose the most serious challenges for [leveraged] consumers and property markets — possibly even resulting in a new deflation scare,

—Stephen Roach

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Trade liberalization is a plus for global growth, no question about it.

—Stephen Roach

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Growth
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The property bubble is nearing its end. This is the end of the great American spending binge.

—Stephen Roach

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The risk is that he will be blind-sided, as his predecessors were, very early in his tenure by something he is not all that well prepared for and by something that the markets do not...

—Stephen Roach

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Risk
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The recession is not over. We will probably have a ‘double dip,’ another downturn, by spring.

—Stephen Roach

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[For all of China’s efforts to create a vibrant domestic market, its economy is highly dependent on exports. China’s economic model these days] is very much a levered play on the staying power of the...

—Stephen Roach

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Economy
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I fully expect that the Chinese officials will address these tension points, but will not waver from their steadfast commitment on a medium- to longer-term basis of an open capital account and currency convertibility.

—Stephen Roach

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For the last three years, we’ve had a two-engine world: the Chinese producer and the American consumer. Both engines are going to slow down. The debate will be whether this two-engine global 747 is in...

—Stephen Roach

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Mine didn’t even rhyme, … But I loved him. He was a great man. I miss him. Put that in, will you.

—Stephen Roach

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Man
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