The United States has long drawn comfort from the quality differential of its educational system. However, in the Internet Age with its ubiquitous diffusion of knowledge, innovation, and technological change, that may turn out to...

To the extent such a payback is likely after the current spending burst, it could act as a sharp depressant on overall demand growth in subsequent quarters, … That development, in the context of a...

The same distortions, in my view, could well be explaining a lot of the recent strength in the remainder of the U.S. data flow. If that’s the case, all it will take is for the...

There is a dangerous degree of complacency, and out of that comes a surprise that does the most damage to the global economy.

An extraordinary deflationary shock in tradable goods has coincided with outsize disinflation in services, resulting in the most deflation-prone business cycle of the modern post-World War II era,

The West always seems to expect a hard landing in China. Yet in three instances over the past decade, China has proved the doubters wrong.

Global trade is an increasingly large component of the world economy — now accounting for close to 25 percent of global GDP. So when world trade hits the wall, so should the broader measures of...

I am feeling better about the prognosis for the world economy for the first time in ages.

Greenspan’s remarks appear to be more balanced than in the past. He is moving into closer alignment with what has become accepted practice in most central banking circles. Missing, however, is what a central bank...

[Inflation] is starting to broaden out; it’s starting to move up a little bit, … The Fed certainly has to be concerned about that.

For the United States, it’s the end of labor as we once knew it.

Unlike the case a decade ago, I view the coming normalization of Fed policy as a much more serous threat to economic recovery in the U.S. and the broader global economy,

He’s the victim. He was beaten, abandoned, betrayed and his medical needs ignored by David Williams.

The case for a classic U.S. current account adjustment grows more compelling. This could lead to renewed weakening of the dollar and higher long- term real interest rates.

Consumers have stagnant real wages and they are getting hit with the shocks of higher energy prices. This is not a good combination for the overstretched consumer.

We are shifting to an outright recession scenario in the United States, and, in response, we are slashing our forecast of the global economy for 2001,

If the Schumer-Graham bill closes down U.S. trade with China through the imposition of steep tariffs, a saving-short U.S. economy will simply have to divert a significant portion of its multilateral trade deficit elsewhere.

You’ve got war, SARS, uncertainty, and imbalances that will prevail after the war is over and until a cure for the disease is found.

Today’s German angst has much in common with the experience of the American worker in the early 1980s and again the early 1990s. For both cases in the U.S., there was no gain without pain....

There’s a little bit of a sign of rust but no sign of bust in the U.S. property market. The weakest link of the global economy in 2006 is the U.S. consumer.

It doesn’t get much cheerier than that.

It’s time to make it official. The downside risks we have been warning of over the past several months are now coming to pass.

China has been moving — very slowly, but the speed is very much dependent on their ability to withstand reforms. The idea of forcing China and other countries to move on the currency front is...

Over the 2004-05 interval, looming bond market perils appear to pose the most serious challenges for [leveraged] consumers and property markets — possibly even resulting in a new deflation scare,

Trade liberalization is a plus for global growth, no question about it.

The property bubble is nearing its end. This is the end of the great American spending binge.

The risk is that he will be blind-sided, as his predecessors were, very early in his tenure by something he is not all that well prepared for and by something that the markets do not...

The recession is not over. We will probably have a ‘double dip,’ another downturn, by spring.

[For all of China’s efforts to create a vibrant domestic market, its economy is highly dependent on exports. China’s economic model these days] is very much a levered play on the staying power of the...

I fully expect that the Chinese officials will address these tension points, but will not waver from their steadfast commitment on a medium- to longer-term basis of an open capital account and currency convertibility.

For the last three years, we’ve had a two-engine world: the Chinese producer and the American consumer. Both engines are going to slow down. The debate will be whether this two-engine global 747 is in...

Mine didn’t even rhyme, … But I loved him. He was a great man. I miss him. Put that in, will you.

When he leaves … he will take away 18 years of confidence the markets have invested in him.

I think there’s every reason to believe that another jobless recovery could be in the offing in the years immediately ahead — one that would take a comparable toll on consumer demand.

The vulnerability of the over-extended American consumer can hardly be taken lightly. That could well be a big problem for the rest of a U.S.-centric global economy.

It’s important to stay focused on the interplay between the consumer and the overextended housing market and sharp increases in energy prices. That will be key as to whether or not the U.S. economy will...

Growth has been chronically weak when compared with any expansion of the past 40 years.

Sound the alarm, it’s Allan McMahon!

The major risk to the global economy is complacency. We cannot keep thinking that we can shrug off the deficit and the property bubble.

Like it or not, the experience of the 1980s demonstrates that supply-side tax cuts are not self-financing. In my opinion, similar results can be expected from the multi-year tax cuts now on the table in...

China’s senior leadership gets it while many outside the country do not.

In my view, the perils of another burst asset bubble far outweigh the costs of another recession,

That underscores the possibility of yet another shoe to fall in world growth — all the more reason to stress the protracted nature of this global downturn.

Once viewed as an unparalleled opportunity, the Chinese miracle is now being viewed as a threat by both the U.S. and Japan.

This is the year to watch out carefully for the end of the great American spending binge.

[This] is just another nail in the coffin for the world economy.

Out here in Asia,

To the extent that hiring in high-wage, developed economies continues to lag, the sustainability of any impetus to private consumption can be drawn into serious question.

The Fed’s going to move 25 basis points; the question is what about after that,

With global trade screeching to such a standstill, so, too, should the external demand contributions of most major economies around the world,