With global trade screeching to such a standstill, so, too, should the external demand contributions of most major economies around the world,

It won’t be a huge dramatic bursting, but it will be felt this year.

I do not think that China is going to run the risk of accelerating its pace of opening up its capital markets because of adverse consequences in the global economy.

Why should the victim who has never received a dime sit back while the civil rights violator gets his job and back pay?

I continue to find Germany, by far Europe’s biggest economy and still the third-largest economy in the world, the most interesting story of all. Germany, despite its bad press, is very much on the move.

There is good reason to believe that a sharp weakening in the value of the U.S. currency is essential to the global rebalancing that must begin to take place if the world’s current account imbalances...

By staying disciplined with regard to inflationary policy, the Fed nips any inflationary expectations in the bud.

Conventional wisdom has it that globalization is a win-win but that is increasingly looking like a pipe dream. There is no escaping the concerns that workers in high-wage countries have.

Never in modern history has the world’s leading economic power tried to do so much with so little. Now Washington is upping the ante as it opens the fiscal spigot to cope with post-Katrina reconstruction...

that doesn’t mean that there cannot be some adjustments made along the way.

Borrowing from physics, the last thing an unstable system needs is a shock. And yet the risks of just such a disturbance have never seemed higher. Far-fetched as it seems, the possibility of a more...

We’ve gone from one bubble, in stocks, to another, in housing.

I honestly believe that if China were to revalue [its currency] upward by 10 percent — a change I do not expect nor advise — its exports would suffer minimal loss of market share,

As the prospects of a full-blown oil shock rise, the prospects of outright global recession in 2005 loom more and more likely.

If that’s the economic model, China is in trouble.

Europe looks at China as more of a strategic partner than a competitive threat so it has stayed more out of the currency debate than the U.S..

Without the consumer, revival remains all too dependent on tenuous support from China and [business investment].

Unfortunately, the SARS effect is concentrated on Asia — long the fastest-growing region in the world and the one area that essentially had been keeping the global economy afloat. To the extent that this source...

The United States has long drawn comfort from the quality differential of its educational system. However, in the Internet Age with its ubiquitous diffusion of knowledge, innovation, and technological change, that may turn out to...

To the extent such a payback is likely after the current spending burst, it could act as a sharp depressant on overall demand growth in subsequent quarters, … That development, in the context of a...

The same distortions, in my view, could well be explaining a lot of the recent strength in the remainder of the U.S. data flow. If that’s the case, all it will take is for the...

There is a dangerous degree of complacency, and out of that comes a surprise that does the most damage to the global economy.

An extraordinary deflationary shock in tradable goods has coincided with outsize disinflation in services, resulting in the most deflation-prone business cycle of the modern post-World War II era,

The West always seems to expect a hard landing in China. Yet in three instances over the past decade, China has proved the doubters wrong.

Global trade is an increasingly large component of the world economy — now accounting for close to 25 percent of global GDP. So when world trade hits the wall, so should the broader measures of...

I am feeling better about the prognosis for the world economy for the first time in ages.

Greenspan’s remarks appear to be more balanced than in the past. He is moving into closer alignment with what has become accepted practice in most central banking circles. Missing, however, is what a central bank...

[Inflation] is starting to broaden out; it’s starting to move up a little bit, … The Fed certainly has to be concerned about that.

For the United States, it’s the end of labor as we once knew it.

Unlike the case a decade ago, I view the coming normalization of Fed policy as a much more serous threat to economic recovery in the U.S. and the broader global economy,

He’s the victim. He was beaten, abandoned, betrayed and his medical needs ignored by David Williams.

The case for a classic U.S. current account adjustment grows more compelling. This could lead to renewed weakening of the dollar and higher long- term real interest rates.

Consumers have stagnant real wages and they are getting hit with the shocks of higher energy prices. This is not a good combination for the overstretched consumer.

We are shifting to an outright recession scenario in the United States, and, in response, we are slashing our forecast of the global economy for 2001,

If the Schumer-Graham bill closes down U.S. trade with China through the imposition of steep tariffs, a saving-short U.S. economy will simply have to divert a significant portion of its multilateral trade deficit elsewhere.

You’ve got war, SARS, uncertainty, and imbalances that will prevail after the war is over and until a cure for the disease is found.

Today’s German angst has much in common with the experience of the American worker in the early 1980s and again the early 1990s. For both cases in the U.S., there was no gain without pain....

There’s a little bit of a sign of rust but no sign of bust in the U.S. property market. The weakest link of the global economy in 2006 is the U.S. consumer.

It doesn’t get much cheerier than that.

It’s time to make it official. The downside risks we have been warning of over the past several months are now coming to pass.

China has been moving — very slowly, but the speed is very much dependent on their ability to withstand reforms. The idea of forcing China and other countries to move on the currency front is...

Over the 2004-05 interval, looming bond market perils appear to pose the most serious challenges for [leveraged] consumers and property markets — possibly even resulting in a new deflation scare,

Trade liberalization is a plus for global growth, no question about it.

The property bubble is nearing its end. This is the end of the great American spending binge.

The risk is that he will be blind-sided, as his predecessors were, very early in his tenure by something he is not all that well prepared for and by something that the markets do not...

The recession is not over. We will probably have a ‘double dip,’ another downturn, by spring.

[For all of China’s efforts to create a vibrant domestic market, its economy is highly dependent on exports. China’s economic model these days] is very much a levered play on the staying power of the...

I fully expect that the Chinese officials will address these tension points, but will not waver from their steadfast commitment on a medium- to longer-term basis of an open capital account and currency convertibility.

For the last three years, we’ve had a two-engine world: the Chinese producer and the American consumer. Both engines are going to slow down. The debate will be whether this two-engine global 747 is in...

Mine didn’t even rhyme, … But I loved him. He was a great man. I miss him. Put that in, will you.