Borrowing from physics, the last thing an unstable system needs is a shock. And yet the risks of just such a disturbance have never seemed higher. Far-fetched as it seems, the possibility of a more...

We’ve gone from one bubble, in stocks, to another, in housing.

I honestly believe that if China were to revalue [its currency] upward by 10 percent — a change I do not expect nor advise — its exports would suffer minimal loss of market share,

As the prospects of a full-blown oil shock rise, the prospects of outright global recession in 2005 loom more and more likely.

If that’s the economic model, China is in trouble.

Europe looks at China as more of a strategic partner than a competitive threat so it has stayed more out of the currency debate than the U.S..

Without the consumer, revival remains all too dependent on tenuous support from China and [business investment].

Unfortunately, the SARS effect is concentrated on Asia — long the fastest-growing region in the world and the one area that essentially had been keeping the global economy afloat. To the extent that this source...

The United States has long drawn comfort from the quality differential of its educational system. However, in the Internet Age with its ubiquitous diffusion of knowledge, innovation, and technological change, that may turn out to...

To the extent such a payback is likely after the current spending burst, it could act as a sharp depressant on overall demand growth in subsequent quarters, … That development, in the context of a...

The same distortions, in my view, could well be explaining a lot of the recent strength in the remainder of the U.S. data flow. If that’s the case, all it will take is for the...

There is a dangerous degree of complacency, and out of that comes a surprise that does the most damage to the global economy.

An extraordinary deflationary shock in tradable goods has coincided with outsize disinflation in services, resulting in the most deflation-prone business cycle of the modern post-World War II era,

The West always seems to expect a hard landing in China. Yet in three instances over the past decade, China has proved the doubters wrong.

Global trade is an increasingly large component of the world economy — now accounting for close to 25 percent of global GDP. So when world trade hits the wall, so should the broader measures of...

I am feeling better about the prognosis for the world economy for the first time in ages.

Greenspan’s remarks appear to be more balanced than in the past. He is moving into closer alignment with what has become accepted practice in most central banking circles. Missing, however, is what a central bank...