There is good reason to believe that a sharp weakening in the value of the U.S. currency is essential to the global rebalancing that must begin to take place if the world’s current account imbalances...

By staying disciplined with regard to inflationary policy, the Fed nips any inflationary expectations in the bud.

Conventional wisdom has it that globalization is a win-win but that is increasingly looking like a pipe dream. There is no escaping the concerns that workers in high-wage countries have.

Never in modern history has the world’s leading economic power tried to do so much with so little. Now Washington is upping the ante as it opens the fiscal spigot to cope with post-Katrina reconstruction...

that doesn’t mean that there cannot be some adjustments made along the way.

Borrowing from physics, the last thing an unstable system needs is a shock. And yet the risks of just such a disturbance have never seemed higher. Far-fetched as it seems, the possibility of a more...

We’ve gone from one bubble, in stocks, to another, in housing.

I honestly believe that if China were to revalue [its currency] upward by 10 percent — a change I do not expect nor advise — its exports would suffer minimal loss of market share,

As the prospects of a full-blown oil shock rise, the prospects of outright global recession in 2005 loom more and more likely.

If that’s the economic model, China is in trouble.

Europe looks at China as more of a strategic partner than a competitive threat so it has stayed more out of the currency debate than the U.S..

Without the consumer, revival remains all too dependent on tenuous support from China and [business investment].

Unfortunately, the SARS effect is concentrated on Asia — long the fastest-growing region in the world and the one area that essentially had been keeping the global economy afloat. To the extent that this source...

The United States has long drawn comfort from the quality differential of its educational system. However, in the Internet Age with its ubiquitous diffusion of knowledge, innovation, and technological change, that may turn out to...

To the extent such a payback is likely after the current spending burst, it could act as a sharp depressant on overall demand growth in subsequent quarters, … That development, in the context of a...

The same distortions, in my view, could well be explaining a lot of the recent strength in the remainder of the U.S. data flow. If that’s the case, all it will take is for the...

There is a dangerous degree of complacency, and out of that comes a surprise that does the most damage to the global economy.