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Tony Nunan  Quotes
We have a two-sided market, which is fundamentally weak in the short-term due to inventories but in the long-term faces all this geopolitical risk.

—Tony Nunan

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It will be more of a political move on the part of OPEC to calm high oil prices.

—Tony Nunan

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Opec
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Bearish (data) is widely expected and the market has already factored it in. But if it should show a recovery in demand, for example in gasoline, the market may rebound.

—Tony Nunan

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However, tension has relaxed a bit and the market came off.

—Tony Nunan

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Tension
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The market has gone up so much and so quickly. This is a technical correction. This is just profit-taking ahead of the weekly statistics.

—Tony Nunan

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Correction
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The market was only expecting an increase [in crude stocks] in the range of two million barrels but crude has been rising for the past five weeks.

—Tony Nunan

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(Increasing production) will be more of a political move on the part of OPEC to calm high oil prices.

—Tony Nunan

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Opec
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Iran continues to hold the fire under oil despite current market fundamentals, and my guess is this will start heating up again.

—Tony Nunan

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Fire
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Commodity-related funds remain in demand because the fundamentals remain the same — we have strong economic growth in Japan, the United States and China that is going to drive up demand, while spare refining capacity...

—Tony Nunan

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ChinaCommodityEconomic Growth
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Last time, the market could handle uncertainty as there was a lot of slack but now because prices are so high, the market is not equipped to handle unplanned events.

—Tony Nunan

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The Iranian situation is kind of dropping into the background.

—Tony Nunan

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The products problems cannot be solved. One way to solve the products (supply) problem is imports from Europe or Asia.

—Tony Nunan

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AsiaEurope
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Demand is so high and capacity is so low, we can go from comfortable to uncomfortable inventories within a month.

—Tony Nunan

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I can’t see why it should have rallied $2 and I think it’s coming back to reality — that the short-term fundamentals look oversupplied,

—Tony Nunan

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There is a high probability of further disruptions in Nigeria as we haven’t seen the end of the attacks.

—Tony Nunan

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Traders are now more concerned about the psychological impact of the hurricanes that has seriously caught American consumers, cutting back on consumption.

—Tony Nunan

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I don’t think the market is weak,

—Tony Nunan

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Even if there is a stock draw, unless it is substantially and unexpectedly high, I would not expect prices to go up above $60 as the near-term market is still heavily weighed down by high...

—Tony Nunan

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Immediate fundamentals look bearish, … Weather seems very mild and inventory levels are high.

—Tony Nunan

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If statistics show any signs of bullishness, prices will go higher. Technically, the market wants to test $65 a barrel.

—Tony Nunan

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In the short and medium term, there’s no crude oil problem because the U.S. government will release stocks and IEA will release stocks to cover that shortfall.

—Tony Nunan

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Government
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Only Saudi Arabia has surplus capacity, and if its oil flow should be disrupted, it could bring a hopeless situation.

—Tony Nunan

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The scary thing is that the hurricane season is not over yet… so I don’t see prices coming down.

—Tony Nunan

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This market is ready to blow. [Petrol] and geopolitical risks are driving the market and they both do not have easy solutions.

—Tony Nunan

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The market is a bit confused because the recent data showed a big build in gasoline inventory. But I think most people will realise that it’ll probably be not until next week that we see...

—Tony Nunan

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The market has been sold off after the Hurricane headed for Florida instead of the Gulf Coast. So oil production is not affected.

—Tony Nunan

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Gulf CoastHurricane
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The short-term situation in the U.S. is not good. With the refinery turnaround season, products should be tight but crude imports are higher and there is warm weather.

—Tony Nunan

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It’s just profit-taking, the market needed to correct.

—Tony Nunan

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For now it’s off the radar screen.

—Tony Nunan

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Radar
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If you look at statistics every week, there’s a drop in demand year-on-year. People are focusing on that.

—Tony Nunan

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Statistics
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It’s no secret that refineries are the problem. There wouldn’t be a problem if there was any slack in the system.

—Tony Nunan

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Though there seems to be a lot of crude around, the long-term view is bullish. The U.S. Northeast will get colder and people may be concerned with middle distillate supplies.

—Tony Nunan

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Iran’s nuclear plans will continue to pose a threat. It may shun foreign investment in its oil facilities.

—Tony Nunan

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Iran
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It has a very high volatility and, short-term, there are plenty of inventories. However, the big concerns are Iran and Nigeria.

—Tony Nunan

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That’s the big question on everybody’s mind, how much this (high prices) affected the demand.

—Tony Nunan

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It is unknown how extensive the damage to the refineries is.

—Tony Nunan

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Iran is playing a smart game of brinkmanship, they are pushing as far into the edge as they can take this and then pulling back.

—Tony Nunan

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The market is highly sensitized to headlines that could affect supply. Anxiety over supplies and possible disruptions are the key drivers of price now. It’s hard to be bearish in a market like this. Levels...

—Tony Nunan

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AnxietyHeadlines
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The geopolitical tensions are still there, but the market is getting desensitized to it.

—Tony Nunan

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Statistics have shown demand was reduced on a year-on-year basis in September and October. Traders are concerned that they may end up seeing slower demand again in November.

—Tony Nunan

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Statistics
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If we get draws in gasoline inventories, that could turn the market around.

—Tony Nunan

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Overall big picture is the market is still strong,

—Tony Nunan

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The situation is unclear because output is still down in the Gulf of Mexico and U.S. refineries are having problems.

—Tony Nunan

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The market pauses here because everyone is very cautious about new data,

—Tony Nunan

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Most of the worst-case scenario has been built in to the price already, so we will get a week of consolidation until the real extent of the damage is known.

—Tony Nunan

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Consolidation
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The market expects bearish inventories, with crude up by 1.5 million barrels, distillates down 1.7 million barrels and gasoline supplies unchanged.

—Tony Nunan

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Increasing concerns over supply shortages in the U.S because of the outages at refineries in the Gulf Coast and disruptions to refinery operations in France are giving support to the market,

—Tony Nunan

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The whole thing about Katrina ends up as a psychological shock. U.S. consumers back off after gasoline prices sky-rocketed.

—Tony Nunan

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Consumers
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It’s a crazy market. Prices look strong one week because of the draws (declines) in gasoline. If we get another big draw this week, the market will be even stronger.

—Tony Nunan

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It looks like the market just doesn’t want to go down. I think everybody is going to be watching stocks today.

—Tony Nunan

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Stocks
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