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Ray Neidl  Quotes
This bankruptcy, they’ll emerge from. The question is do they emerge stronger or weaker.

—Ray Neidl

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Bankruptcy
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Things will return to somewhat normal in second half of next year, … But I don’t think the industry will come back quite as large as it was before.

—Ray Neidl

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The price-earnings multiple, based on future earnings forecasts, is still fairly low, in the 5 to 6 range, … These P/E multiples can go as high as 10. There’s still some upside for most of...

—Ray Neidl

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Future
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It’s going to be tough. He’s got to keep good labor relations, but they’ve got to cut more in the labor area.

—Ray Neidl

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Labor
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It’s a failing carrier and government authorities would probably love to have a bigger airline come and buy it and rescue it.

—Ray Neidl

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Government
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With fuel over $70 a barrel, it’s a logical move.

—Ray Neidl

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Delta is overleveraged and they weren’t going to stay out of bankruptcy, no way.

—Ray Neidl

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Bankruptcy
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There’s a lot of capacity is coming on. It’s a little scary. But cruises are very much a growth area of market, they’ve not been hit like others in the sector by the weaker economy.

—Ray Neidl

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Growth
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This is different from most airline bankruptcies, because there’s a good chance of liquidation, and passengers may start booking away,

—Ray Neidl

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Hurricane Katrina was probably the last straw. Nobody could have predicted 60-dollar, 70-dollar-a-barrel oil.

—Ray Neidl

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Long term to me,

—Ray Neidl

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They will be more internationally oriented, and domestically they’ll have more regional feeders, as they’ve been doing in Salt Lake and Cincinnati. I’ve got a feeling that Salt Lake will be more a part of...

—Ray Neidl

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They (airline officials) are afraid things could deteriorate further, … That’s why I have a ‘buy’ rather than a ‘strong buy.’

—Ray Neidl

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They came to reality. They’re going to negotiate the cuts that the company needs. It would have been suicidal for them to go on strike.

—Ray Neidl

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Company
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As they grow, it’s obvious they’ll be crossing each others’ paths.

—Ray Neidl

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Basically, you have to have airline consolidation.

—Ray Neidl

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The traffic was much weaker than anyone was expecting. My guess is no one knows for sure how bad it was, including the company.

—Ray Neidl

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That’s hurting United even more, which it can’t afford,

—Ray Neidl

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The advantage to American is they could buy assets very cheaply, since TWA has very low equity value, and also it would prevent another airline from moving into St. Louis and competing with American if...

—Ray Neidl

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Value
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Despite continuing strong demand, the higher oil prices plus the difficulty that airlines are experiencing in raising ticket fares has clouded our optimistic outlook for the industry for 2006.

—Ray Neidl

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Difficulty
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If your employees are disgruntled they can still do damage to you, no matter what the court orders. But all of this is going to make it harder for United to win back its good...

—Ray Neidl

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You need cooperation because this is a service business.

—Ray Neidl

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Business
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These changes reflect marginal improvements in our estimates of [revenue per available seat mile] and fuel usage.

—Ray Neidl

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US Air is prime candidate (for closure). The other big question mark is United, and how they restructure themselves.

—Ray Neidl

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That’s a lot of slots for BA to give up.

—Ray Neidl

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Delta’s share price is so low, it doesn’t take much to bounce.

—Ray Neidl

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Bounce
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If there’s a bright light for the company, I’m sure management will try to be turning it on, but I don’t see it.

—Ray Neidl

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Company
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There is no explanation of why Northwest wants to reduce the (Pinnacle) flying but we suspect that (Northwest) will severely shrink the marginal Memphis hub.

—Ray Neidl

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A bankruptcy filing will be a given if they don’t get a concession from other unions. It’s going to be one-on-one talks with each. It’s a good sign these unions aren’t supporting the mechanics, but...

—Ray Neidl

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I think it’s the yawn of the century so far. My theory is one of the reason they’re doing it is to try to win back business travelers they lost during the (1998) strike.

—Ray Neidl

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Reason
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They’ll probably negotiate through the arbitration period.

—Ray Neidl

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They might try to become more international-oriented. Domestically, I’m thinking they will shrink.

—Ray Neidl

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I don’t think there’s been a massive sale of slots, … By having a massive amount of slots sold, it’d be a lot more valuable for a carrier like Continental.

—Ray Neidl

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In worst case the company caves completely to the union,

—Ray Neidl

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Company
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I think there’s an overreaction here, … Everybody’s getting crushed today, but I would interpret it as being a United problem.

—Ray Neidl

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It’s making me nervous. Most days it’s over $70 a barrel I become very nervous.

—Ray Neidl

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Air travel is usually one of the first big hits of a slowing economy, but these guys don’t believe the economy is slowing. It’s only going to be a good quarter.

—Ray Neidl

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Economy
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At this point, I think it’s a high hurdle. If it does happen, it’s going to be en masse — all or nothing.

—Ray Neidl

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On the investors side, I still think everything’s overpriced.

—Ray Neidl

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Investors
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There’s a powerful franchise there. If they can get the right cost structure, the model does not have to be tweaked too much. Hopefully they won’t have to sell assets. If you start having to...

—Ray Neidl

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The odds are still against an approval. Are the concessions all ‘hard dollars’ is the question that the ATSB and analysts are asking.

—Ray Neidl

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Approval
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That will put more pressure on American and Continental to do the same.

—Ray Neidl

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He has been pretty active with these emergency boards, … If there is a strike, I think it’s highly probable it will be short. If there is no intervention, I think it could drag out...

—Ray Neidl

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Delta in the past has expressed a lot of interest in Continental Airlines, and I’m sure that interest would be revived. The only thing is Continental has a tie-up agreement with Northwest and something would...

—Ray Neidl

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Interest
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Everything I’ve heard so far is that bookings have not been affected.

—Ray Neidl

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They are trying in bankruptcy to bring down their whole cost structure, so there won’t be a need for a low-cost unit.

—Ray Neidl

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Trying
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It’s a step. They were going to get the certificate someplace. That is just one less thing on the check list.

—Ray Neidl

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There is plenty of blame to go around,

—Ray Neidl

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Blame
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This is the real hidden cost that is going to the consumer.

—Ray Neidl

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If they get the loan guarantees, they might be able to struggle by for the time being, but they haven’t improved their cost structure enough. Most people think they didn’t get enough savings and they...

—Ray Neidl

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Struggle
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