The only inflation out there is energy.

We had expected to see a bigger rebound. On the other hand, some of the pain is lifted by the fact that they did revise up both November and December, so things are still looking...

Consumers are spending their little hearts out. We are doing pretty darn good.

We can’t run econometric models. The numbers aren’t good enough.

The real question is not what he does, but what he says.

We’re expecting oil prices to continue to come down. They’re now about $60. We expect to be down around $50 by the end of the year.

We don’t seem to be having any trouble financing our large and growing trade deficits.

Back when the program was created, elderly people were dying because they had nothing to eat and no health care. Social Security has been incredibly successful at virtually eliminating poverty among the elderly.

In Japan’s case, back in 2003-2004, they feared the yen would drop too much in value and they intervened heavily in the currency markets. Then, Japan ceased intervening over the last year or so —...

I think the core trumps the energy prices. We know about energy prices and it’s an accident about when they collect price data during the month.

There is just no spare refining capacity around to deal with these losses. We don’t have any cushion.

I don’t think he wants the markets to start thinking about the things he might change. I think he wants to take it easy at first.

Consumer spending may slow down a bit more than thought. But, it won’t drive us into a recession – that would probably take oil going well over $100 a barrel.

Politically, I wouldn’t raise rates on the 20th. Raising rates when you are trying to recover from a disaster like this is sending the wrong message.

It is a good time for the government to start locking in long-term rates before they go higher. Corporations are doing it, so why shouldn’t the government?

This is the continuing story of the rich getting richer. Clearly, the gains in wealth are going to the top end.

It looks sort of in line with expectations, with some strength — for example a rebound in communications and machinery, but also some disturbing continued weakness in the computer sector.

The Fed doesn’t like to switch policy very quickly. Unless something goes wrong, I think they are going to stop (after the March move) and hold rates there for an extended period.

We might have a lower unemployment rate and a somewhat lower gross domestic product, but it wouldn’t be a huge impact.

Energy is the big wild card. We just don’t know where prices will be. It will be a question of how fast oil refineries and oil pipelines come back.

There is no change for the Fed. They are more focused on the real economy. They are looking for any sign that core inflation is going up.

Common sense says consumers have to stop spending money at some point. But consumers haven’t shown much common sense lately, despite griping about gas prices.

If you’re trying to finance capital spending, you do that off saving.

The bottom line is that we had a very strong quarter of growth.

There is a risk that energy could break out into a bigger inflation problem. We have gotten through Katrina and oil prices have backed off a bit, but there is a risk that if we...

It’s not leaking into the core inflation rate as it did back in the 1970s.

The leading indicators are telling us that we have got a slowdown because of the disruption from the hurricanes, but it is not as dire as the September drop would suggest.

Greenspan is coming to the end of his term and he really wants to get the interest rate increases done before he leaves. He may feel he can’t afford to take a meeting off.