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Tetsu Emori  Quotes
Oil may peak during the hurricane season in August or September. Economic growth will add to tightness in supply.

—Tetsu Emori

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Growth
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The pace of demand growth in China is something we are all watching, because it will have a greater effect on crude oil demand-supply balance at some stage.

—Tetsu Emori

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It looks quite unlikely that Katrina would affect the Gulf of Mexico facilities, and that’s what’s bringing the price down now as people start to take profits.

—Tetsu Emori

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Imports from IEA countries are almost completed. The demand-supply balance is a little tighter.

—Tetsu Emori

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The conversion is proving to be difficult. The U.S. has a problem with ethanol supplies because they are limited right now.

—Tetsu Emori

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The political risks are still in place, so the downside is going to be quite limited.

—Tetsu Emori

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It’s still very difficult to tell what the situation in winter will be, but as soon as colder weather comes along, prices would definitely go up,

—Tetsu Emori

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The release of crude and gas stocks from the IEA provided a good cover against the shortage expected after the hurricanes,

—Tetsu Emori

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Traders are looking at the Nigerian and Iranian issues. They don’t like to sell at present.

—Tetsu Emori

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The market has met some resistance at this level. Investors are taking profit after the rally and the entire commodity complex including metals is down. It might drop to $70 and then people may come...

—Tetsu Emori

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CommodityInvestorsRally
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Oil prices would be pushed up by this kind of pension-fund money. It’s a big one we cannot ignore.

—Tetsu Emori

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Money
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The market is quite weak as the U.S. starts receiving materials from abroad. I’m looking for oil to fall to $62.

—Tetsu Emori

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We’re all watching the temperatures now, if they go down, there’ll be a rush to buy. But most traders are just looking at the short term rather than the medium or long term.

—Tetsu Emori

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The Iranian situation isn’t going away. There are dangerous comments coming out of Iran on their nuclear testing and that will keep oil high.

—Tetsu Emori

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The situations in Nigeria, Iran and Iraq remain uncertain. Fears of supply disruptions from these oil-producing nations remain.

—Tetsu Emori

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Traders are looking at weaker demand, and that’s the main reason why they are just sitting in the market right now.

—Tetsu Emori

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Most of the traders are looking at the Iranian issue over the bearish inventory report.

—Tetsu Emori

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The oil market is now down because most people are taking profits after seeing a sharp increase last week.

—Tetsu Emori

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For OPEC countries, less than $60 a barrel is not a suitable price it is quite cheap for them so they want to push the price to around at least $62-$63, which may also be...

—Tetsu Emori

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We need confirmation of heating oil demand. People will be watching that figure when the report is published.

—Tetsu Emori

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Temperatures in the U.S. are not as cold as we expected. Stockpiles seem adequate for the moment.

—Tetsu Emori

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If the US attacks Iran, oil prices could rise 20-30 dollars in one day. Nobody wants to see that.

—Tetsu Emori

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At some stage, I think Iran will use its oil as a weapon to negotiate with the U.N. and the U.S., which would push up the market — although they are unlikely to stop exports...

—Tetsu Emori

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The economy seems to have completely absorbed high oil prices and people will be looking for steady economic growth next year. People expect a drawdown in crude oil stocks so they don’t want to be...

—Tetsu Emori

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Economy
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Even though heating oil inventories fell, the level they are at is not as low as we had expected. The market is just watching temperatures in the northeast of the U.S. for price direction.

—Tetsu Emori

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Stock levels were the highlight of the week, and should remain so next week — the recovery we are seeing now is a buy-back ahead of the U.S. public holiday on Monday.

—Tetsu Emori

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I don’t think Iran will stop oil exports because of the money, but we have to wait and see for the IAEA meeting.

—Tetsu Emori

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Money
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Everyone’s just looking at Rita.

—Tetsu Emori

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Last week, there was an attack by terrorists in Saudi Arabia and that’s why the market jumped, but the Saudi authorities were successful in foiling the attack so this calmed the market a bit, prompting...

—Tetsu Emori

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People don’t like to take any position before Christmas. Most people are thinking prices will be sustained at this level for the time being.

—Tetsu Emori

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The inventory data must be quite a bearish factor in the market. The price is well supported around $58 a barrel though.

—Tetsu Emori

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Traders are most concerned about the Iranian issue, as the situation appears to be getting worse.

—Tetsu Emori

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Everyone’s just looking at Rita. It’s more psychological right now. But if Rita comes to the Gulf of Mexico and disrupts supply, then we have a problem.

—Tetsu Emori

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If winter is colder than expected then prices could rebound quite sharply.

—Tetsu Emori

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The weather and the high crude inventory levels are the main factors weighing down prices. This trend should carry on until the end of the year, with prices to hold between $55-$58.

—Tetsu Emori

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Production in the Gulf has risen dramatically and refinery input has also risen, these are good selling factors.

—Tetsu Emori

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This is a huge amount of money in the commodities market. Oil prices would be pushed up by this kind of pension fund money.

—Tetsu Emori

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Money
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In that case, we’ll be in the winter season already. If temperatures in winter time are lower than forecast, then that should be a big problem.

—Tetsu Emori

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I believe the recovery of crude oil production in the Gulf area will take a long time, one month or even two.

—Tetsu Emori

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The Iranian nuclear issue is driving the market. Traders are short-covering because they know if something happens in Iran the market would be in confusion. The issue poses a threat of supply disruption in a...

—Tetsu Emori

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After some profit-taking, we are now waiting for the inventory data. But the Nigerian crisis remains a serious issue.

—Tetsu Emori

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Crisis
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People are just waiting for a chance to buy ahead of Christmas. At the US$58 level, it’s a good time to buy back.

—Tetsu Emori

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Supplies of crude oil and oil products are less than normal, which will bring a much tighter market in winter.

—Tetsu Emori

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Traders need to understand that the supply-demand situation is much tighter in fact, especially since U.S. Gulf of Mexico operations are still mostly down. Demand is still strong, and can only rise in coming months.

—Tetsu Emori

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(U.S. data) showed quite bearish numbers, … Prices may fall rapidly to $56 unless we have cold weather.

—Tetsu Emori

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It seems to be a very crazy market. People worry about gasoline and crude oil supply.

—Tetsu Emori

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The supply of oil is still ongoing; most people feel there won’t be a disruption, so they’re taking profit now, especially after Friday’s sharp increase.

—Tetsu Emori

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The situation has completely changed since the beginning of October.

—Tetsu Emori

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The production of gasoline in the U.S. is quite limited compared against the same period last year. And the refinery bottleneck situation is still a problem that drives the market.

—Tetsu Emori

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(U.S. data) showed quite bearish numbers. Prices may fall rapidly to $56 unless we have cold weather.

—Tetsu Emori

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