We are faced with perhaps the worst possible situation that planners and policy makers could image.

The Main Street reaction may be a little bit muted this time compared to the third quarter because gas prices have pulled back.

Currently, we are fine with respect to distillates and natural gas. But the extent of damage to production facilities in the Gulf and to refineries will determine how things unfold over the next few months.

I think if the rest of the hurricane season doesn’t cause disruptions, and global supplies stay as they are, we should see prices pulling back into in the low to mid-$50’s, without a recession. We...