Economy is not baseball, where the game is always played by the same rules.

Distinguishing the signal from the noise requires both scientific knowledge and self-knowledge: the serenity to accept the things we cannot predict, the courage to predict the things we can, and the wisdom to know the...

When we advance more confident claims and they fail to come to fruition, this constitutes much more powerful evidence against our hypothesis. We can’t really blame anyone for losing faith when this occurs

…the ratings agencies’ problem was in being unable or uninterested in appreciating the distinction between risk and uncertainty.

In science, progress is possible. In fact, if one believes in Bayes’ theorem, scientific progress is inevitable as predictions are made and as beliefs are tested and refined.

Under Bayes’ theorem, no theory is perfect. Rather, it is a work in progress, always subject to further refinement and testing.