We believe China’s trade surplus will gradually drop, but it will take time before it drops dramatically.
—Louis Kuijs
Even with the better numbers, the 20% reduction in only five years is still an ambitions target.
Traditionally, there was a perception that households in China do all the savings. Household saving is significant in China, but it is not driving the national savings.
To meet the 20% reduction in only five years could require pretty tough policies that might hurt growth.
China has been adjusting energy prices for a long time, and indications are that helped improve the energy intensity. There is still a lot of scope for raising energy prices.
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