Let’s put it this way, … I wish it could have happened in the middle of the ocean.

First of all, I could not believe it, … Nobody in their right mind would have expected this drop in pressure.

It should stay out in the open Atlantic.

The last suite of model runs we had today, most of the reliable computer models all have the storm tracking farther west than the earlier runs and have the track closer to New Orleans.

It’s getting better organized per minute.

Normally, this value would correspond to a system of hurricane strength.

The longer it stays down there the worst it will be for them.

We can get torrential rainfall from this system.

This is a very large hurricane, a very powerful hurricane. Wherever you have the eye of this system, you are going to have a potentially catastrophic disaster there. This is the worst-case scenario for a...

There must be some favorable environment, but we’re not able to see what it is.

It looks like Texas is it.

The best option in these cases … is to forecast little motion. The bottom line is that Ophelia will likely meander just off the northern Florida and southeast Georgia coasts for the next five days.

We have been expecting this system to weaken for the last few days, but the system has not weakened. I cannot speculate about it because we don’t know why.

Then, a strong high-pressure ridge is forecast to develop over the eastern United States. This pattern would force Ophelia westward and west-northwestward toward the US coast.

There are no clear reasons and I am not going to make one up to explain the recent strengthening of Epsilon.

We don’t think it’s going to affect land.

Interests from northern Florida through the Carolinas should closely monitor the progress of Ophelia during the next few days,

If you go back to the ’70s, we have not improved very much in intensity forecasts.

We always thought it could be a dangerous hurricane, … is the typical track for October.

We were monitoring that system for days and days and days,

Ophelia is forecast to become a hurricane within the next 12 hours.

They kept telling me you have to have patience, … Systems in the Caribbean in October take a long time to develop.

It’s like adding high-octane fuel to a fire.

That?s why we tell you, if it’s a Cat 2, get ready for a Cat 3.