So we could be looking at at least a month without Iraqi oil.

It is too early to blame the restart of Iraqi oil shipments for the gains (crude stocks), but implies that gains may be larger in the weeks ahead.

in the short term we could see a knee-jerk reaction higher.

Our feeling is that OPEC will agree to the increase, but that the net impact on global supplies will be negligible,

Saudi Arabia and even the hawks, like Iraq, are reluctant to see the price stay above $30. They won’t leave this meeting without a new agreement on the mechanism for delivery of more oil.

It has to be put into perspective. We have strategic stocks which can obviously be used very quickly indeed if necessary.

The market has coped very well with the hurricane situation on the surface, particularly on the refinery side,

There were a few signs overnight that, although clearly tensions are rising, there is a window of opportunity for some peace settlement over the next three days.

There are clear signs at the moment that we are starting to see the impact of high oil prices on demand — and that’s being seen in many regions.

I would imagine they’ll use their 20-day price trigger as the barometer, which means not until the end of June, by when we should know what the UN is doing with smart sanctions,

OPEC is now talking about a 1 to 1.5 million bpd cut and Mexico and Russia are at least talking about output cuts,

However in doing so it has also shown itself not to be a bastion of stability it had claimed, but a hawkish price-rigging organization,

Crude stocks fell by 0.749 million barrels per day, which disappointed some traders who were looking for the SPR releases to have a positive impact on inventories,

Without any further word from Saudi Arabia about production, … there is no reason to believe that we won’t see prices move higher.

Part of the recovery overnight (in the price of oil) may have been due to anti-Israeli protests in Jordan, where 30,000 protestors had to be driven back from the boarder by security forces,

OPEC has a paranoia with oversupply, … This weekend’s meeting is likely to see OPEC agreeing to meet some time in January or February to discuss a cut in supply.

Indeed, even if OPEC is not bothered about helping America per say, economic considerations make a lower price as sensible option,

Compliance will improve from February levels, partly because the winter demand will not be there and also because of the fear that prices will slump if OPEC is not seen to be in firm control,

OPEC has shown itself to be market-savvy by recognizing that waiting for the price band mechanism to kick-in could cause a slump well below $22 a barrel.

If it breaks that we could see $370 an ounce,

Overall there is a general consensus in the market that prices are likely to head lower and that the break of the current range will be to the downside. However, we would note that the...

The plan has been slammed by environmentalists and some commentators who regard the proposals as a handout to the oil industry.

While gasoline was clearly the main driving force behind the market on Friday, there is little doubt that the Middle East tension also provides some upside momentum for crude.

Our feeling is that with the current surplus of physical crude that prices will continue to erode from here for the next week or two.

Another compromise could be in the offing, … What we could see is (OPEC President and Venezuelan Oil Minister) Ali Rodriguez stepping down to take on the role.

You have to look at the series trend, and [prices] are definitely in an upward move.

El Nino is definitely developing into the strongest event we’ve had in a long time, possibly in this century.

Most of these projects were supposed to be done last year. If U.S. money had been made available, Iraqis could have done the job faster. Whichever way you look in the short term, it comes...

Given the paranoia of the cartel that it is currently pumping too much oil and that this threatens a price collapse early next year, caution will clearly be the main watchword.

Another compromise could be in the offing. What we could see is (OPEC President and Venezuelan Oil Minister) Ali Rodriguez stepping down to take on the role.

There is clearly a risk that this is going to happen, however small that risk may be,

It’s certainly having an effect [on prices] but it’s more people preempting El Nino than anything else.

[The DOE report] suggests that more product (such as heating oil) may be available in the week ahead, … Adding to this, the U.S. 6-to-10 day forecast calls for above-normal temperatures in much of the...

Recently a former aid, giving evidence against him, said he was running short of funds. Therefore, if he was the instigator of the attacks on the US, another sponsor was likely to be involved.

No one fundamental reason can explain this whopping fall, … There is concern that demand, particularly from the airline industry, could fall. There are clear recessionary concerns.

This time last year prices were around $32 a barrel before falling to $22 a barrel in May, because of excess supply in the market. OPEC wants to avoid that (happening again this year),

Demand is still strong within China but growth was exceptionally strong last year. That year-on-year growth is narrower is not a surprise.

Whether OPEC chooses to make public the size of any output cut ahead of the ministerial meeting Nov. 14 is uncertain, … But it may well choose to do so if prices remain weak.

As we go forward, geopolitical issues won’t go away over night, but we wouldn’t have got to oil at $60 plus without a lot of other factors.

Under normal circumstances, it would be far too soon for OPEC to consider raising production, but these are exceptional circumstances,

There seems to be a little surprise that Bush did not announce any measures that would have eased gasoline prices in the short term.

The fact that the North Sea output problem is supporting the market really shows how tight the physical crude supply is.

The U.S. will respond to this attack in some fashion and there remains a small fear that it may lose some Middle Eastern support as a result.

OPEC is playing a dangerous game of bluff, and has to be prepared to follow it through,

As far as the Middle East is concerned, there is still strong justification for a premium to remain in the market until it is clear the situation is much calmer on the ground,

[Describing the Saudi action as a] totally shocking move … The Saudis are stamping their authority on the world oil market, but at the expense of relations within the cartel and the Middle East.

We have responded to a very specific physical supply disruption and we will review that response as we go further forward.