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Joe Osha  Quotes
The concerns that underpinned our mid-cycle correction thesis are beginning to dissipate, and semiconductor stocks globally are well below their March highs. We would advise investors to begin buying semiconductors more aggressively.

—Joe Osha

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While many of the stocks in this group are already down by 50 percent over the past several weeks, we believe that inventory concerns, coupled with telecom service-provider capital-spending concerns, will weigh on the group...

—Joe Osha

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Past
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Just because Intel has faltered does not mean the company is now incapable of executing.

—Joe Osha

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Company
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I don’t think I’ve ever seen competitive momentum shift like this, so congratulations.

—Joe Osha

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We continue to believe Intel will apply competitive pressure to AMD in the desktop and mobile markets in an effort to blunt further shares gains, even if the result is negative for Intel’s own profitability...

—Joe Osha

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We think that the most interesting potential for National lies in the wireless market, where the company has the potential to substantially increase its revenue per phone.

—Joe Osha

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The disappearance of Vista from the holiday 2006 selling season is likely to have a bigger impact on semiconductor companies than a simple few-week delay might imply.

—Joe Osha

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In the best-case scenario, an inventory correction would lead to the communications integrated-circuit sector just making consensus estimates, breaking with the precedent set over the past six quarters and not raising forward expectations. Even this,...

—Joe Osha

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Correction
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One of the dominant worries here is the question of whether we’re going to see any building of inventory that will result in 1Q weakening. But as the data points have rolled in, that appears...

—Joe Osha

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For now, we’re staying with the neutral intermediate-term rating on AMD’s stock until we see how the company weathers the Northwood launch. We are still long-term strong buyers of the stock — even if AMD...

—Joe Osha

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Company
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We’d love to tell investors that we anticipated Intel’s problems, but we did not.

—Joe Osha

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Without the consumer Vista push for the 2006 holidays selling season, we think that discrete graphics processing unit sales could suffer slightly.

—Joe Osha

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Valuation for the stock appears significantly high for a company with a sustainable earnings growth rate of 10 percent to 15 percent. We have difficulty imagining any second-half recovery that could raise earnings, and investor...

—Joe Osha

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We’ve seen investment in capacity go up quite a bit and we had a scare this summer with wireless. So you can make a case that the business is in trouble. We try to focus...

—Joe Osha

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We think that the worst is past in terms of the downturn.

—Joe Osha

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Past
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June improvement may yet materialize, but it’s not turned up yet and defending a sequential revenue increase is getting tougher.

—Joe Osha

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Improvement
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We wrote last November that Sony’s design choices for the PS3 had resulted in an expensive and difficult-to-manufacture product, and we think that we’re seeing the consequences of those choices play out now.

—Joe Osha

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What we can say, however, is that expensively valued stocks are poorly prepared for surprises like the one Intel delivered yesterday.

—Joe Osha

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Surprises
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We continue to believe that we are in the second year of a 5- to 7-year investment cycle in Internet infrastructure.

—Joe Osha

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We believe that Intel had largely completed shipping its quarter prior to Sept. 11.

—Joe Osha

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Believe
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We think it’s likely that the stock will see a short-term rally on relief that the outlook has not deteriorated further, but the absence of bad news does not constitute an argument in support of...

—Joe Osha

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We’re not raising our estimates for the March quarter, but the strength at Motorola points to the possibility of upside.

—Joe Osha

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The rate of decline for both the flash memory and communications business in the second quarter could be more dramatic than the overall top line, leaving it to the microprocessor business to pick up the...

—Joe Osha

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What we see happening is a bottoming to the rate of change in the semiconductor business, which has been negative and less capacity being added by the fourth quarter, which is also good. So, although...

—Joe Osha

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The clock-speed wars have gotten to the point where it’s not clear who benefits. It’s certainly not the customer who wants to buy 700 MHz stuff at reasonable prices. It has been a problem, but...

—Joe Osha

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They have a pretty good idea at this point what they’re going to ship.

—Joe Osha

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Although one could argue that Analog Devices’ upbeat outlook merits raising the number even further, we would prefer to wait and see how growth shapes up over the year as Analog Devices catches up with...

—Joe Osha

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I’d be a lot more comfortable with the group at 20 times [2003 earnings].

—Joe Osha

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It’s not going to effect the company’s position.

—Joe Osha

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In posting the weakest Q4 revenue result and Q1 outlook since the bursting of the bubble, Intel has made it clear how much competitive ground the company has lost to AMD. The extent of the...

—Joe Osha

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We admit to some difficulty in seeing what supports consensus earnings estimates.

—Joe Osha

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Difficulty
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Despite our conservative remarks on margin compression and pricing intensity, we continue to believe Intel will meet our revenue forecast and reiterate our intermediate-term neutral and long-term accumulate rating.

—Joe Osha

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Intel’s status as an industry bellwether has allowed the stock to move with the industry in the past.

—Joe Osha

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Past
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While we believe that our December 2000 quarter estimates are intact, we believe that there is a high probability that the inventory build corrects sometime over the next two quarters.

—Joe Osha

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Believe
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It’s a little harder in June, because this is an especially back-end loaded quarter. But even so, $6.4 billion to $7 billion is a fairly wide range, and since they’ve been doing this mid-quarter update,...

—Joe Osha

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We suspect that Intel will, at some point, respond with aggressive pricing rather than allow AMD to continue to build market presence.

—Joe Osha

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It is very hard to find any evidence of a real end to the upturn that began in late 1998. Although we see little to support semiconductor stock prices during the next two months, we...

—Joe Osha

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The semiconductor sector in general is in very good shape; the industry hasn’t invested enough in capacity and that is actually very good for chip makers. Intel is often treated as a proxy for the...

—Joe Osha

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At 27 times our 2003 earnings estimate Intel is still expensive relative to its growth prospects and its own history.

—Joe Osha

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We believe that Intel will be forced to respond competitively to AMD in the coming year, which may put more pressure on Intel’s pricing than we had expected.

—Joe Osha

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Although the company is executing in terms of cost control, we think margin contractions at the gross margin level will continue through the second quarter as well, which we had not factored in.

—Joe Osha

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Intel’s mid-quarter update was generally in line with our expectations, which supports our checks suggesting that the PC market is tracking normal seasonality in the back-end loaded third quarter.

—Joe Osha

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We think that the investment community has bought into the idea of a second-half recovery, and that’s probably going to happen.

—Joe Osha

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Texas Instruments’ decision to buy analog specialist Burr-Brown fits well with the company’s stated objective of building its presence in the analog business. Despite the somewhat rich valuation for the deal, we think that the...

—Joe Osha

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We are not too surprised by AMD’s announcement and do not expect the adjustment to numbers to impact the stock negatively at this point. Given the fact that AMD’s product lineup at the low end...

—Joe Osha

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The reason I am positive on the stock right now is the fact they are pushing into servers, workstations — the things that are being driven by growth in the Internet. That is a big...

—Joe Osha

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Given the challenges Intel faces currently with its business model, we think the stock needs to trade on a lower multiple of 2003 earnings to be attractive.

—Joe Osha

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