We’re probably going to get two members who go for a cut. The data isn’t pointing in one direction enough for the rest of the committee to go with them just yet.

Average earnings growth was far softer than anticipated. It remained at 3.5% … and is well below the 4.5% rate that the Bank of England has in the past considered compatible with its inflation forecast.

Today’s data is very weak, which adds to our concern about the prospects for consumer activity and the housing market in the months ahead.

Euro-zone data flow this morning will encourage further hawkish rhetoric from the ECB.

The (confidence) report will offer further support for the bond bears and help to push up rate hike expectations, as will news that existing home sales were stronger than expected.

The risk for the U.S. is that the housing market there may slow markedly, so you can actually argue that for once the UK is actually leading the U.S..

This … will boost hopes that activity in the first half of 2006 will remain robust. It will also increase talk of the Fed raising rates again in May, to 5%.

A ‘no change’ outcome looks virtually certain.

Hurricane insurance payouts will not recur, we expect the deficit to narrow sharply again in Q4 2005. The negative impact on sterling from today’s release should be short-lived.

Inflationary pressures are gradually easing, which should offer scope for interest rate cuts, but near-term relative economic strength has led us to pencil in the first cut coming in May rather than in the first...