In economic terms at least, Wednesday’s budget seems set to be a very low key affair.

While the February mortgage lending and approval data are relatively healthy, there are hints that housing market activity could be starting to lose momentum after several months of improvement.

The climb in annual house price inflation to 2.5 per cent in November from a nine-year low of 1.8 per cent in October reported by the ODPM adds to the recent evidence that house prices...

Nevertheless, limited core inflation in January will not deter the ECB from hiking interest rates by a further 25 basis points on Thursday.

Below the headline data there are some positive features that should not be overlooked.

With consumer price inflation below the 2% target level in both December and January and clearly below the levels forecast by the Bank of England in their November quarterly inflation report, a near-term interest rate...

It seems a nailed-on certainty that the Bank of England will hold interest rates steady on Thursday,

Robust service sector activity in February makes it even more of a cast-iron certainty that the Bank of England will keep interest rates unchanged next Thursday.

The Bank of England will not be happy to see that manufacturers output prices rose at an increased rate in December, as it suggests that they could be stepping up their efforts to pass on...

The disappointing decline in manufacturing output is most unlikely to sway the Bank of England from leaving interest rates unchanged on Thursday.

The testimonies to the Treasury Select Committee reinforce the impression that interest rates are set to remain on hold for several months to come.

Manufacturers will be hoping that healthier growth in the euro zone and a recently softer pound will increasingly feed through to give them with a significant boost in 2006.

This underpins our belief that the Bank of England is too optimistic on the growth outlook and will eventually end up trimming interest rates by a further 25 basis points.

UK imports of goods excluding oil … rose for a fourth successive month in February, and by substantial 4.5 percent, suggesting that domestic demand may have surprised on the upside in the first quarter.

Following the higher-than-expected headline producer price inflation data for January… (Tuesday’s data) is welcome reassurance that strong competitive pressures through the supply chain are still limiting the pass-through effects of high oil and energy prices.

The increase in inflation in August was primarily due to higher prices for fuel and some food items, while core consumer inflation actually edged back down to 1.7% after spiking up to 1.8% in July...

If this is confirmed, it will reinforce our suspicion that the December performance was inflated by many consumers opening their wallets to treat their families and themselves at Christmas having held back their spending over...

The clear improvement in economic sentiment in December boosts hopes that domestic demand will increasingly kick in over the coming months to support growth.

All the indications are that the ECB remains inclined to tighten monetary policy further over the coming months to contain inflationary risks.

This significantly reduces the prospects of any interest cut until at least August. Indeed, it increases the odds that the eventual next move in interest rates could be up.

This [CPI data] very much keeps the door open for an interest rate cut in February, although the Bank of England may still prefer to wait while it monitors the strength of consumer spending and...

The evidence of marked improvement in the manufacturing sector further guarantees there will be no interest rate cut this Thursday. Indeed, we admit it is looking increasingly questionable whether interest rates will be trimmed further.

Retail sales picked up more than expected in March, which along with the current strength in the housing market, boosts hopes that the consumer is still alive, if not exactly kicking.

This is a really stunning retreat in retail sales. It reinforces our belief that the Bank of England is too optimistic about consumer spending.

While the fourth quarter GDP data and the relatively healthy mix of the components further diminishes the chances of a near-term trimming of interest rates, we still believe a 25 basis point interest rate cut...

The immediate impression is that the inflation report is pretty neutral. It does little to encourage the view that the bank could trim rates in the immediate future.

This very much keeps the door open for an interest rate cut in February.

Year-on-year growth of 2.2-percent exactly matched the Bank of England’s forecast… reinforcing expectations that interest rates are set to remain unchanged for several more months to come.

Consumer confidence is faltering anew, which does not bode well for spending in the near term at least.

This (CPI data) very much keeps the door open for an interest rate cut in February, although the Bank of England may still prefer to wait while it monitors the strength of consumer spending and...

This is still a pretty benign report overall and broadly in line with Bank of England expectations contained in the February Inflation Report.

While it is clearly premature to sound the all-clear on inflation, the October consumer prices data are largely reassuring for the Bank of England and boost hopes that inflation has peaked,

While the CBI survey indicated a marked softening in consumer spending following the relatively strong December performance, it nevertheless indicated a significantly stronger performance than that seen overall in recent months.

This increased housing market activity has clearly led to some recent firming in house prices, and there is undeniably a risk that prices could move sharply higher over the coming months.

This confirms that late in 2005 there was still no evidence that pay was starting to be pushed up by recently higher consumer price inflation and increasing energy bills.

This reinforces our belief that consumer spending will remain subdued for some time to come despite September’s pick-up in retail sales.

The latest data – including the improvement in manufacturing activity and current strength of the housing market – has increased the odds that the eventual next move in interest rates will be up.

The February CBI survey reinforces our belief that consumer spending will be unable to sustain the relatively strong performance seen in the fourth quarter of 2005.

Healthy mortgage lending data show that housing market activity extended its recent firmer performance in December. This is also borne out by the latest survey evidence consistently showing increased buyer interest.

It currently seems a pretty safe bet that interest rates will not change for several more months to come, if at all this year.

Consumer credit growth was again relatively muted in September, pointing to continuing consumer caution,

The slowdown in euro zone growth will not deter the ECB from raising interest rates in March and a further hike remains very likely in June.

With economic growth likely to remain below trend in the near term at least and unemployment set to continue rising, there is a very real danger that individual insolvencies and mortgage repossessions will climb markedly...

The GDP data (is) unlikely to be weak enough to prompt the MPC into cutting interest rates in November,

The Nationwide data provides support for our long-held view that house prices will be unable to sustain sharp gains for some time to come.

The overall trade performance was dragged down by a fifth successive deficit in oil trade and a reduced surplus in services.

Consumer confidence held up relatively well in February, following January’s sharp bounce.

This is still a pretty healthy report overall that suggests that the service sector has started 2006 relatively strongly. The report does little to change perceptions that the Bank of England will keep interest rates...

House prices are likely to remain relatively flat for an extended period,

Relatively subdued consumer spending, intense domestic and international competition, and high input costs continue to dampen … the sector.