The failure of crude oil to rally today is only temporary – the Iranian situation is just getting worse and worse, at least for energy, by the day.

There’s conflicting weather models on that (approaching storm),

This isn’t enough to break the back of high oil prices.

OPEC has discovered that the economy can handle higher oil prices, which is unfortunate for consumers. We are going to see them try to keep prices in a $50-to- $60 range.

Prices have posted a limited decline…on reports that the Nigerian rebel group, MEND, released three oil workers, who were being held as hostages. MEND claims it will not take hostages in the future, but it...

In the very near term the Nigerian issue could generate more immediate buying pressure.

A significant amount of refined products will remain off the market for some time to come, and will prevent heating oil and gasoline stockpiles from being replenished, at least for the next few weeks,

We’re on a hair trigger.

Prior to its current path, we were looking at the worst-case scenario for the industry with the hurricane striking Houston, … It saves us from the worst.

This condition will last through the New Year and has given the technical picture a decidedly negative bias. Any bargain hunters have certainly been given pause by yesterday’s action, although the low volume probably exacerbated...

A large consuming area in the Midwest is going to experience a relatively significant degree of cold weather, and that is going to help support these prices.

In the short term, the market remains caught between the downward influence of growing stockpiles and the potential for a supply disruptive event to suddenly appear, bolstering buyers.

We are in assessment mode right now. We are still trying to get a better picture of when refineries will be back up and production in the Gulf is restored.

The biggest disappointment is that oil is not getting out of the north which is supposed to be Kurdish-controlled.

The EPA waiver was a big move,

A large swath of U.S. demand was taken out of the market as a result of Katrina. The EIA report shows that U.S. demand growth will decline by 40 percent. Overall inventories are still healthy.

The investment dollars are coming into the energy market as people look for a hedge against the Iran worries. The momentum makes reaching $70 inevitable.

There’s too much uncertainty,

Apparently, the immediacy of a surplus trumps geopolitics, for a day or two anyway. The next two days will focus on stockpiles and moderating weather, then, as the weekend approaches, the focus will widen again...

I think we’re in the process of nearing a bottom.

The hangover from the damage done by Ivan is still on everybody’s mind. We’re still in that mode where any bullish news is tremendously bullish even if it’s slight.

The Iran affair will come to the fore as a result of the IAEA meeting. We could be squarely on the road to curtailed Iranian oil production as a result, pushing prices up.

Consumers are unrelenting in their demand for oil in the United States.

Oil at $60 and $70 was predicated on extremely strong economic growth and these hurricanes have had a deleterious effect on the economy.

It has taken a lot of worry out of the forward looking supply situation.

With distillate stocks at a 14-million-barrel surplus, the forecast for colder temperatures isn’t providing much support. It is too little, too late.

We’re going to keep on marching higher here, … The next stop is the $41.15 it hit on the heels of Saddam Hussein’s invasion of Kuwait and from there I would expect another spike higher....

The biggest thing right now is statements attributable to Congressman Tauzin saying the [Strategic Petroleum Reserve] has been switched to flow mode,

The sentiment has changed from worries over supply to worries over demand.

With distillate stocks at a 14 million-barrel surplus, the forecast for colder temperatures isn’t providing much support. It is too little, too late.

Heating oil has fallen below a critical support level, the 200-day moving average. This is a seminal technical point for traders.

Worries about gasoline supplies during the summer driving season are fading.

Last week’s report showed that there was 2.802 trillion cubic feet in storage, which participants have apparently judged to more than adequate for the remainder of the season.

Rita is set to knock off 26 percent off the U.S. refining capacity, which is going to push gasoline prices upwards of three and four dollars a gallon in the coming days.

It now looks like the next hurricane will miss the Gulf refining region. The storm may do significant damage to Florida though, which would further hit the economy.

This is a very nervous market that needs every single incremental barrel the market can put out and produce,

We’ll be paying attention to gasoline because there is a question about supplies as summer approaches.

We’re going to keep on marching higher here. The next stop is the $41.15 it hit on the heels of Saddam Hussein’s invasion of Kuwait and from there I would expect another spike higher. Once...

Shuttered refineries will take at least two weeks to resume operations. Natural gas inventories, already challenged prior to Katrina and, now, Rita, will be constrained further and 15 dollars (per BTU) natural gas is likely,...

As much as Katrina has taken (the oil) supply off the table, there’s also demand it has taken off the table.

These are newer, bigger worries for the energy market.

Natural gas is the one commodity here that I have very little to say about in the way of good news.

There was a late wave a selling at the end of the day.

You can never underestimate the potential for OPEC to do the wrong thing and push prices with their rhetoric or actions.

The continuing rhetoric out of Iran over the weekend helps to keep it supported and poised to go higher.

Oil at $60 wears on consumers. If prices continue to fall demand will rebound.

If there is a direct cost of the Iraq war to consumers besides the impact on the federal budget, it’s certainly being seen at the gas pump,

Iraq is slipping further towards civil war.

Even though [natural-]gas prices don’t have a direct link to current geopolitical uncertainties, it has to make those holding short positions more than a bit anxious.

Remember, the power outages are what bedeviled recovery efforts after Katrina,