It’s not really troubling. It’s the first decline since September. Probably more important is the trend that’s in place, which is upward. You would probably need to see three or more declines in the leading...
—Gary Thayer
The bond market had been thinking that the weak economic numbers that we’ve seen would cause the Fed to think twice about raising rates,
We’ve seen, over the past seven months or so, orders stabilize or improve slightly, compared to a big decline last year. Orders are rising relative to inventories, and that’s a positive sign for capital spending.
It looks like we will have about a half-million lost jobs from the hurricanes and we have now seen the lion’s share of that.
Unfortunately, this is pre-Katrina data and may not reflect what we’re likely to see in the next couple of months.
It’s a good decline in prices for a change. It appears the big drop in energy prices during November has brought the overall inflation rate down considerably.
The warm weather meant that utilities didn’t have to produce the seasonal norm, which occasionally happens in the wintertime.
The bond market took the GDP number positively, … It had expected stronger growth and some people may now be reminded that the Fed will not be quick to raise rates.
It still shows a pretty healthy economy at this point. The manufacturing side of things and business spending will be good this year.
Manufacturing is expanding, but not as broadly as in November. There was weakness in new orders and employment.
We’re still seeing a strong economy, … shows that we still have very good job creation. I think it’s very encouraging and a positive thing for American business.
This is probably going to keep the Fed concerned about inflation. If the housing market is still healthy, policy-makers will probably continue to raise interest rates.
Inflation is creeping up, but it’s not out of hand. I think that’s pretty important, … The bond market may have discounted a worst-case scenario over the last couple of months on inflation, and now...
Confidence is up again — to the highest level in over two years. Consumers are feeling better not only about current conditions, but also about prospects for the future.
This report leaves the door open for a rate cut. There’s still uncertainty out there, and as a way to sort of offset the uncertainty, the Fed will do more than it may need to...
Today’s numbers show that consumers are not very optimistic about the economy. As a result, we will see consumer spending reduced until we see some relief on energy prices. If we don’t get some relief,...
If we hadn’t heard from Greenspan last week that the Fed is still worried about an uneven recovery, we might be more upset about these numbers. But Greenspan is concerned that these retail sales numbers...
So core inflation is still rising slightly but doesn’t appear to be a problem, and I think this is good news for the Federal Reserve . With energy prices declining it reduces the risk that...
Growth is still at a healthy level. There is no major slowdown.
We’re still getting some mixed data because of the impact of the hurricanes, but the underlying economy still looks healthy, … So I don’t think today’s data change the Fed’s thinking about raising interest rates.
Fewer people are worried about jobs right now, more people think that jobs are easy to get, and I think that’s supporting confidence despite the high energy prices.
If unemployment continues to decline and the economy grows at an above-average pace … I think they (the Fed) will be a little more concerned about bottlenecks.
It suggests our manufacturers are adjusting to a new environment and will continue to grow, … I think we have (already) seen the worst for manufacturing.
If sales can be sustained at this level, that would help support housing construction, but inventory of new homes is still increasing. The housing market is cooling off, but not dropping sharply.
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